THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S HOUR 
OF DESTINY 



THE 
GERMAN EMPIRE'S 
HOUR OF DESTINY 

BY 

COLONEL H. FROBENIUS 

With a Preface by 
SIR VALENTINE CHIROL 



NEW YORK 
McBRIDE, NAST & COMPANY 
1914 






Copyright, 1914, by 
McBride, Nast & Co. 



Published November, 1914 

NOV 18 1914 
©GU388652 



CONTENTS 

CHAPTEE PAGE 

Preface . . 3 

I The Inevitable Conflict Between 

Great Britain and Germany ... 15 

II Russia's Preparation for War with 

Germany and Austria 75 

III A French War of Revenge Forecasted 106 

IV The Hour of Destiny . 128 



THE PREFACE TO AMERICAN 
EDITION 

The extraordinary interest for Americans of 
this remarkably prophetic book is heightened 
by the fact that "The Hour," epitomized in the 
familiar toast of the zealous German militarist, 
has come; and by the further knowledge that 
Col. Frobenius' prophecies are based in part 
upon the observations of Homer Lea, an 
American student of world politics. 

Published only a few days before the declar- 
ation of war and receiving the hearty commen- 
dation of the German Crown Prince, this book 
definitely forecasts the greatest war in history, 
as early as the spring of 1915 or 1916. 

Col. Frobenius with blunt soldierly direct- 
ness declares that the preservation of the Brit- 
ish World Empire requires the enfeeblement, 
or destruction of Germany, and that France 
has long been prepared for a war of revenge. 
Pursuing what he regards as a logical course, 

3 



PREFACE 

he maintains that the culmination of the Wars 
of the Nations will be a mighty conflict in the 
Pacific between the American, European and 
Asiatic Nations. 



PREFACE 

Some student of the historical phenomena of 
our times will doubtless one day work out a 
complete record of the warnings of the coming 
storm we have had out of the mouths of Ger- 
mans themselves since Treitschke, the apoca- 
lyptic precursor of the Mailed Fist, first 
proclaimed that Germany must square ac- 
counts first with France and Russia and then 
proceed to the squaring of the last and great- 
est of her accounts — with England. When 
that record has been compiled, we shall hardly 
be able to charge the Germans with having 
sought to take us unawares. 

There are none so deaf as those who have 
not ears to listen, or who listen only to the 
things they like to hear. With the latter, in- 
deed, our ears were plied to satiety through 
all the many official and unofficial channels 

5 



PREFACE 

which Germany had at her command, from the 
Emperor and his Ministers down to the per- 
sonally conducted parties of amiable Teutons 
who periodically came to England with hatred 
in their hearts but with a keen eye to business 
and always with their pockets bulging out 
with messages of peace and goodwill. 

Only a nation as addicted as ourselves to 
contemptuous indifference in regard to all for- 
eign countries could have failed to be struck 
with the contrast between the smooth lan- 
guage used before the footlights under the 
audible prompting of the Imperial stage man- 
ager, and what was being not merely said but 
done behind the scenes by the blood and iron 
authors of the new Teutonic drama: "World 
Empire or Downfall." 

Our prosperity had satisfied us that peace 
was the greatest of British interests, and, that 
being so, we hugged ourselves with the com- 
fortable assumption that nobody else would 
try to disturb it. If peace was good enough 

6 



PREFACE 

for Englishmen, it was good enough for the 
rest of the world. That in Germany there 
was growing up a powerful school of thought 
which looked upon war as in itself a far higher 
thing than peace, and war with England, 
especially, as indispensable to the working out 
of Germany's destinies, was to most English- 
men incredible, as most things seem to be that 
lie entirely outside the range of one's own ex- 
perience. 

When Germany, time and again, rejected 
with scorn and derision the proposals of the 
British Government to reduce the burden of 
armaments by common agreement, or to ex- 
pand the area of international arbitration, or 
to mitigate the horrors of warfare by the 
solemn enactment of specific regulations, we 
spoke with sorrow rather than with indigna- 
tion of her short-sightedness and comforted 
ourselves with the assurance that, in the long 
run, the forces of progress and peace must 
prevail in Germany, as everywhere else, over 

7 



PREFACE 

the medieval influences of a German bureau- 
cracy still imbued with some of the worst Bis- 
marckian traditions. 

The few Englishmen who, having enjoyed 
better opportunities, had for many years past 
read the signs of the times in Germany, who 
had realized that a new generation was grow- 
ing up which regarded even the Bismarckian 
traditions as too mild and cramped to achieve 
the boundless expansion of the Teutonic world 
empire, who had recognized that the German 
sword was no longer, as in Bismarck's days, 
merely the powerful weapon which German 
diplomacy controlled, but itself now controlled 
German diplomacy, did their best to enlighten 
their fellow-countrymen, but they were merely 
jeered at for their pains as mischievous alarm- 
ists who mistook the ravings of a few German 
fire-eaters for the voice of the great peace- 
loving German people. 

Some of our rulers, with the fuller knowl- 
edge they were bound to possess, saw, if only 

8 



PREFACE 

as through a glass darkly, the breakers ahead. 
But they hesitated to take the country into 
their complete confidence, and the measures 
they were from time to time compelled to take 
in order to secure a modicum of national 
safety were therefore too often only half 
measures brought forward with an apologetic 
half-heartedness which failed to carry convic- 
tion either to friends or to foes. 

This translation of Colonel Frobenius's 
book, with the high-sounding title of The Ger- 
man Empire's Hour of Destiny, is the latest 
addition to the evidence with which, since the 
war broke out, the British public is being con- 
fronted of its blindness for so many years past 
to the true inwardness of German ambitions. 
He too is one of those who foreshadowed Ger- 
many's Next War, and though he is not 
possessed of the fine frenzy which inspires 
General von Bernhardi's works, and indeed 
looks mainly to an American, General Homer 
Lea, for his text, his businesslike discussion of 

9 



PREFACE 

the military problem to which Germany would 
have to address herself, is none the less valu- 
able. 

As for all the writers of this school, Eng- 
land is for him the enemy par excellence. 
But in some respects he surpasses them all by 
imputing to her, even in the conduct of the 
coming war, the same Machiavellian duplicity 
which has, of course, in his opinion character- 
ized her diplomatic preparations for it. "The 
world is governed only by trickery and de- 
ceit," wrote Frederick the Great to Voltaire, 
and the Emperor William prides himself, 
above all, on being the direct heir of the Fred- 
erickian tradition. But he who puts his faith 
in trickery and deceit and makes a constant 
practise of them, is apt to assume that every 
one else does the same, and this assumption 
lands him in grievous miscalculations. 

Colonel Frobenius has stumbled badly into 
this very pitfall. He believes, of course, in 
the first place that England, whilst anxious to 

10 



PREFACE 

see Germany involved in a life and death 
struggle with France and Russia, would do 
her best to keep out of the conflict herself, 
with a view to profiting, as she has always 
done, by the ultimate exhaustion of the bel- 
ligerent Powers. But should she come in, it 
would be only for the purpose of destroying 
the German Navy, of which she has watched 
the growth with jealous alarm. Even if her 
military resources allowed her to take any part 
in the hostilities on land, it would not be in 
her interest and therefore she would not care 
to assist the French Army which, if victorious 
over Germany, would in its turn become once 
more, as it has been in the past, a source of 
disquietude to the British Islands. 

Colonel Frobenius, it should be added, is 
good enough to impute equally mean arriere 
pensees to our allies. France and Russia, 
according to him, would like to destroy the 
German Army, but they would also like to 
preserve the German Navy as a counter to be 

11 



PREFACE 

subsequently employed against the increasing 
predominance of England. It is a singular 
and also a reassuring feature in the disquisi- 
tions of all these apostles of brute force that, 
however sound their military theories may 
prove to have been, their political calculations 
have, for the most part, already hopelessly 
miscarried. The reason is not far to seek. 
Their military theories dealt with forces which 
are capable of more or less exact calculation; 
their political estimates ignored all those 
moral imponderabilia of which Bismarck him- 
self was fain to recognize the immense impor- 
tance. No doubt, in a world ruled wholly by 
brute force, as the world would be if they had 
their way, they would be right, for all moral 
forces, ponderable or imponderable, would 
have ceased to exist. But happily, though 
Colonel Frobenius has been specially blessed 
by no less exalted a personage than the Crown 
Prince of Germany himself, that time is not 
yet. Valentine Chirol. 

12 



The German Empire's 
Hour of Destiny 

It cannot be maintained that the unification 
of the German races and the reconstitution of 
the German Empire in 1870-1871 awakened 
much pleasure in any European State. To 
the Powers the balance of Europe seemed up- 
set, as a Power worthy of respect arose in the 
central territory which had furnished them 
with a welcome battle-ground, and the small 
states had great fear of "rapacious and land 
greedy Germany" which the experience of 
forty-three years of peace has not yet miti- 
gated. And yet this new strong military 
Empire has proved itself by its restraint, even 
to the sacrifice of its just claims, the mighty 
shield to which we are principally indebted for 
this long period of peace. 

13 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

During this time there has been no lack of 
occasions, and it has often required the high 
statecraft of a Bismarck to promptly extin- 
guish the glowing sparks which threatened to 
set fire to all Europe; but since Russia is no 
longer bound by any treaty, since her inter- 
ests have thrown her into the arms of France, 
and since England has considered her eco- 
nomic and military dominion of the world 
threatened by Germany, unfavorable circum- 
stances are beginning to shape themselves 
against the German Empire, so that it will not 
much longer be able to patiently bear the bur- 
den and we shall probably have to reckon in 
the not distant future with a solution by re- 
course to arms. Let us consider what inter- 
ests the principal, and therefore the most 
dangerous, opponents would really have in 
such a war which will undoubtedly involve the 
whole of Europe. 



14 



THE INEVITABLE CONFLICT BE- 
TWEEN GREAT BRITAIN AND 
GERMANY 

the british world empire can only be 
saved by Germany's overthrow 

An American, but at the same time a keen 
Anglo-Saxon, Homer Lea, recently published 
a book, The Bay of the Saxon} in which he 
pictures the dangers which threaten the Brit- 
ish world empire, inasmuch as England has 
lost so much of her fitness for war and has so 
neglected her war preparations, especially 
with regard to the maintenance of a sufficient 
army on land, that she is no longer in a posi- 
tion to protect her colossal possessions. "The 

i The Day of the Saxon. Homer Lea, Harper & Brothers, 
New York. Translated by Count E. Reventlow under the 
title of Des Britischen Reiches Schicksalstimde (Berlin, 1913; 
E. S. Mittler & Sohn). 

15 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

old ideals which produced the world empire 
have been laid aside. The warlike spirit is 
only of secondary consideration: it is hardly 
anything further than that spirit of commerce, 
slothful and satiated with the accumulation of 
things which are useless for national and racial 
progress." 

On the other hand this world empire, which 
extends over and controls all available corners 
of the earth, presents grave difficulties to the 
expansion of other nations, so that a conflict 
with those States which chiefly require expan- 
sion, namely, Germany and Japan, is una- 
voidable because assured communication with 
the oceans of the world, which is vital to their 
interests, furnishes the motive for such expan- 
sion, whereas, on the other hand, Russia still 
has vast territories at the disposal of her rap- 
idly increasing population. Homer Lea con- 
siders Germany the most dangerous opponent 
of the British world empire, and in his view 
England should never have permitted the uni- 

16 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

fication thereof. England should rather have 
utilized the disintegration and dismemberment 
of post-Napoleonic Europe in order to make 
herself over-lord of that Continent. Whether 
England had the opportunity and capacity to 
do this the author does not attempt to con- 
sider. 

As a matter of fact, Germany has since 
1870 become dangerous, not as an opponent, 
but competitor of Great Britain in the world's 
markets. The first breach in the highly de- 
veloped industry of Great Britain was made 
by Alfred Krupp as long ago as 1851 when 
he exhibited at the London Exhibition against 
the best effort of English steel works, namely, 
a block of 1,000 lbs., a similar block of 2,000 
kilogrammes (4,400 lbs.) in weight; and, as he 
was able at the World's Exhibition of 1862 to 
exhibit breech-loading guns and great shafts 
for vessels together with a block of forty thou- 
sand pounds in weight, he for all time captured 
for the German iron trade the premier posi- 

17 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

tion which had so long been stubbornly held by 
England. 

The proved perfection of his drawn steel 
guns in the war of 1870-71 assured German 
gun manufacturers a position all over the 
world which, thanks to the untiring energy of 
our manufacturers, could not be shaken by the 
greatest efforts of English industry. Into 
the breach opened by Krupp aspiring repre- 
sentatives of other industries courageously 
sprang and the trade which developed hand in 
hand with them to all corners of the earth 
soon enabled Germany to become an important 
rival in the markets of the world. 

But not yet a dangerous one, because as long 
as the British Fleet had the mastery of all 
means of communication at sea all the splen- 
dor of the German Commercial Marine could 
be easily swept away at the first opportunity. 
The commercial war only became dangerous 
when Germany commenced to build war ves- 
sels for protection of her commerce, and even- 

18 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

tually changed her ideas from what was origi- 
nally intended to be only a coast defense force 
to a battle fleet which became a considerable 
factor of German war power. The political 
grounds for England's opposition, therefore, 
primarily rest on an astonishing but frequently 
reappearing fear of our sea power. In order 
to obtain a clear view of the motives hitherto 
underlying her policy we will examine Eng- 
land's past history. 

Since that country has played a part in the 
history of sea Powers, that is to say since she 
determined to obtain for herself a position on 
the sea, her opponent has always been from 
time to time the strongest sea Power. Thus, 
just as she was the constant enemy of the world 
Powers Spain and Portugal so long as they 
ruled on the sea, England turned against Hol- 
land as soon as the latter, after her release 
from the Spanish yoke, had won her dominion 
on the sea. And as soon as the latter, in un- 
fortunate misapprehension of her real require- 

19 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

ments and hard pressed on her frontiers, neg- 
lected her navy, England immediately took 
up her attitude against another Power, 
France, which strengthened itself at sea under 
the wise guidance of Colbert. This enmity 
England maintained so long as no other Power 
became more dangerous. On every occasion 
when France, driven by her restless ambitious 
policy, was involved in a conflict, we find Eng- 
land on the side of her opponents and also 
even when English interests were not directly 
in question. And we find this continuing un- 
til some other Power appeared which could 
threaten the Island realm more directly than 
our western neighbor. 

Slowly but uninterruptedly Russia had ex- 
tended its borders in Asia; with exceptional 
stubbornness had pushed its Cossack hordes 
toward the east and south, and England saw 
that she had to make immediate preparations, 
as her own efforts to expand from the direc- 
tion of India would knock up against Rus- 

20 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

sian opposition. The dangerous situation was 
that in that direction her strength left some- 
thing to be desired, that is to say she might 
easily come off second best in a conflict in the 
interior of Asia. So an opportunity had to be 
found by which this future enemy could be 
combated at sea. This was found when Rus- 
sia attempted, in the Turkish War, to increase 
her power in the Balkans. The Crimean war 
broke out and we suddenly find England as 
companion in arms of her former hereditary 
enemy France, against the new and dangerous 
opponent. 

For some time peace seemed to reign be- 
tween the two sea Powers ; but this state of af- 
fairs did not last long. Even if since that 
date they have not actually come to blows it 
may well be remembered what embittered dip- 
lomatic struggles the partition of Africa and 
France's renewed colonial expansion in Asia 
and the Mediterranean in the last quarter of 
the past century led to between the two Pow- 

21 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

ers. In 1889 England effected a powerful in- 
crease of her fleet as against France's sea 
power, and in 1898 both fleets were actually 
mobilized in consequence of the Fashoda dis- 
pute. Then came the first German Navy law. 

At one stroke England's policy changed its 
front. Whereas up to that time the devel- 
opment of Germany's marine interests had not 
been regarded from the English point of view 
with very kindly feelings and attempts had 
been made, where possible, to hinder them, 
from that moment a diplomatic war set in 
against us which we have since been accus- 
tomed to regard as permanent. We should 
not be deceived by a temporary apparently 
friendly disposition; this generally conceals se- 
cret feelings of malevolence. And the whole 
course of past British history confirms this. 

As soon as our vigorous determined Ger- 
man people, under the rule of a far seeing sov- 
ereign, resolved to create a weapon which could 
be utilized on the sea, then according to Eng- 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

lish principles such must always be fought, as 
the most dangerous — the enemy. But it must 
be understood that he is the enemy because he 
is building a fleet; when this has been de- 
stroyed then at one blow all cause of enmity 
will have disappeared. With the fleet de- 
stroyed it may be concluded that German 
commerce would be robbed of its absolutely 
necessary protection and after destruction of 
its mercantile marine it would withdraw from 
the world's markets in a condition of impo- 
tence from which it would only be in a position 
to recover slowly and with great exertions. 

Homer Lea is, however, of opinion that the 
British World Empire can only be saved by 
the complete ruin of Germany and the mili- 
tary relations of the two present to him a 
double aspect; "The Anglo-Saxon can only 
fight Russia on land, Japan only on the water ; 
a war with Germany involves a fight on land 
and water. The difficulties of this contest will 
demand the full means and powers of those 

23 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

concerned ; they will be twice as great as in an 
Anglo-Russian contest or Anglo-Japanese 
contest." ... If the British Navy destroys 
the German Fleet the only result will be the 
same position as before the war, but at any rate 
the United Kingdom will no longer have to ap- 
prehend immediate danger. 

But even such a victory would not bring 
England nearer to the destruction of the power 
of Germany and her possibilities of a world- 
wide expansion than was the case before the 
war, "for only in the case of a war between 
Great Britain and another Island nation 
would the navy be of paramount importance. 
In a war with Russia the navy would have no 
place at all. In a war of aggression against 
Germany it would be of secondary importance. 
The British Navy has one sole mission; to re- 
main mistress of the sea. From beginning to 
end it is directed to defense. 

"The army alone possesses the capacity and 
power of deciding a war and bringing about 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

such a peace as will prolong the existence of 
the World Empire." He emphasizes the fact 
that it is essential for the future greatness of 
Germany to destroy the Anglo-Saxon World- 
dominion and to build up its own World power 
out of the ruins, and he explains that it is for 
that reason it is the first duty of England to de- 
stroy the German forces. 

On such grounds Homer Lea founds Great 
Britain's need to create an army which will be 
superior in any war on land by adoption of 
universal military service, not only in her Is- 
land kingdom, but also in her colonies. Many 
efforts have been made in this direction in 
England, especially in recent times and with 
the support of moderate persons, without suc- 
ceeding in overcoming the opposition of the 
nation. Such a measure would not only cut 
into the deep rooted ideas of personal freedom, 
but would also be contrary to England's cus- 
tom (which has always been skilfully and hap- 
pily preserved) of exploiting on land the mili- 

25 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

tary powers of other nations and extracting 
from their loss of blood the double advantage 
of overcoming unpleasant resistance to herself 
and bringing about a wholesome weakening of 
her allies. For possibly within a short time 
the latter might develop into an enemy who 
would have to be fought. And might not 
such a custom be considered appropriate as re- 
gards Germany? 

But as to this anon. Let us first give a 
hurried glance at the measures of Britain for 
securing her permanent over-lordship of the 
ocean, which are not only adapted to the Island 
Empire's commerce but also to her readiness 
for war. With wonderful acuteness she has 
ever been successful in finding and, regardless 
of others, annexing in all parts of the ocean 
such spots as control the important routes. 

By means of Gibraltar the entrance to the 
Mediterranean is closed, through Malta the 
connection between its western and eastern ba- 
sins, and through Cyprus she has assured the 

26 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

entrance to the Suez Canal, which with Egypt 
is absolutely hers. By that means she con- 
trols the shortest waterway to India, the In- 
dian Ocean and the Pacific. But she is also 
in a position to exercise her influence over the 
longer route round Africa by means of St. 
Helena and Ascension as well as her African 
colonies, whilst the outlet from the Red Sea 
to the Straits of Bab-el-Mandeb is closed by 
the Island of Perim. The road to the Pacific 
proceeds further through the Straits of Ma- 
lacca, and at this spot a British Naval Harbor 
was recently built at Singapore. 

It should be possible for the European 
States by construction of railways to free 
themselves of England's lordship of the water 
routes, and Russia succeeded in establishing a 
connection with the Pacific by means of the 
Siberian Railway, but the desire, thereby to 
obtain a constantly open harbor, was frus- 
trated with the help of Japan. Germany 
commenced the construction of the Anatolian 

rt 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

and Bagdad Railway; but soon thereafter 
England succeeded in wresting from Turkey 
the important terminus Koweit and so mul- 
tiplied the obstacles which she was already in a 
position to impose to the outlet from the Per- 
sian Gulf by possession of the Island of Bah- 
rain and the Ras Dschask. Only one sea- 
route — a recently created one — has been with- 
drawn from British influence: the Panama 
Canal which connects the Caribbean Sea or, 
as it may be called, the American Mediterran- 
ean, direct with the Pacific, and thereby Great 
Britain's absolute command of the sea has, it 
must be confessed, suffered a serious blow. 

The Island Empire will have to tolerate 
the participation of other nations with strong 
navies — and in the first place in the Pacific — 
but this only with the neighboring states of 
Japan and North America who possess de- 
fensive positions in that ocean, and perhaps 
with France, who would like to save the re- 
mains of her over-sea possessions in India from 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

the covetousness of England and to further ex- 
tend her dominion in Madagascar and further 
India. Not with Germany, which throughout 
the whole distance of its possessions in Africa 
to the Pacific does not possess a single place of 
shelter. 

And it is not only free water ways which 
navigation requires, since sailing ships have 
been completely replaced in the navy and 
largely in the mercantile marine by steam- 
ships. As all human progress can only be won 
by sacrifice, navigation has had to surrender 
its unlimited freedom of action as against the 
great advantages of steam: it is absolutely de- 
pendent on supplies of fuel for its boilers. But 
as a warship has to carry considerable loads in 
the shape of armor, guns and ammunition, 
even the largest battleships cannot exceed a 
certain load of fuel and to that extent the du- 
ration and length of the voyage, with supplies 
sufficient to maintain a certain rate of speed 
without re-coaling, are limited; that is to say, 

29 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

the useful activity of the ship suffers. There- 
fore if supplies cannot be renewed the ship 
is just as incapable of continuing her voyage 
as a locomotive, which has run out of coals and 
water. 

With the introduction of steamships all sea- 
faring nations were therefore obliged to take 
into consideration the acquisition of coaling 
stations at certain intervals, for which purpose 
of course only islands or places on the coast 
were suitable which presented ample protec- 
tion for shipment of coal and to which end it 
was necessary to acquire the proprietorship. 
And at this point Great Britain proceeded to 
acquire for herself not only an efficient medium 
in her commercial competition with Germany, 
but also in case of need a considerable obstacle 
to the employment of Germany's navy in war 
time. 

Great Britain was clever enough to be able 
to frustrate every attempt of the German Em- 
pire to acquire points of support or at any rate 

30 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

coaling stations on the coasts of the seas of the 
world. All movements and enterprises of 
German ships were followed with suspicious 
eyes so as immediately and actively to op- 
pose by diplomatic means or even by direct 
threats all attempts to acquire any spot adapt- 
able as a coal base even if such intention were 
only remotely suspected. 

Every one will remember that in the dis- 
pute over Morocco France showed herself 
quite willing to hand over to Germany certain 
territory, but England's threatening attitude 
stiffened her back and compelled us to give up 
all claim to any Moroccan possession. In con- 
sequence of this attitude of our cousins across 
the Channel, Germany's mercantile marine 
and navy are obliged to rely for their coal sup- 
plies on the depots of other nations and prin- 
cipally of England. In addition to the fact 
that our ships have to pay the prices asked for 
this hospitality and the advantage goes to the 
foreigner, it becomes a serious question where 

31 



THE GERMAN EMPIRES 

we are to find anywhere on the globe, friendly 
nations who will be able to provide our ships 
with fuel in time of war. The harbors of Eng- 
land and France will assuredly be closed to us, 
and it is more than doubtful whether the Col- 
onies of small European States would, in face 
of Great Britain's threats, dare to remain 
open to us. 

Here we have a very substantial instance 
where we require freedom of action and where 
England has fettered our requirements for ex- 
pansion ; in this direction it is necessary for us 
sooner or later to break these chains which are, 
if maintained, intolerable to our navigation, 
and must in case of war constitute a grave 
danger. But to this end it is not necessary 
to destroy the Anglo-Saxon World dominion 
which Homer Lea declares to be absolutely 
necessary for the future greatness of Germany. 
Germany's wants could be easily satisfied out 
of the excessive abundance of England's pos- 
sessions. But it seems as if England desires 

32 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

to continue the contest for sole command 
of the sea. And therefore it must be her prin- 
ciple always to fight the State that may be- 
come the most dangerous, and first of all Ja- 
pan before the latter grows into too powerful 
an opponent in the Pacific. But for such pur- 
pose she would require all her maritime forces 
and this may appear to her a doubtful enter- 
prise in face of the strong German Navy. For 
that reason she favors the course of using the 
first favorable opportunity of destroying the 
latter, her present opponent, and thus winning 
full freedom of action in the Pacific. But for 
this object the destruction of the German Fleet 
would be sufficient and it would not require the 
complete destruction of the German Empire, 
which Homer Lea considers necessary. 

Great Britain has acquired another arm 
through her network of cables by which she 
has bound together all parts of the world 
with the Island Kingdom. A rapid means of 
communication of news is of exceptional im- 

33 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

portance for commerce as well as for naval 
warfare. It enables a concentration of man- 
agement which can take advantage of every 
favorable situation and which is in a position 
to avoid every threatening danger and to 
spring on the enemy, who is excluded from 
this news service, the most unpleasant sur- 
prises. 

So long as England was the sole mistress of 
the whole cable service she could at will close 
its use to other nations and impose complete 
deafness and blindness on them with regard 
to events in distant spots, keeping for herself 
alone means of sight and hearing and so secure 
to herself all the advantages of initiative. The 
acknowledgment of this danger has not so long 
back induced other nations to lay cables which 
are capable of communicating news across the 
sea independently of the English connections, 
at any rate in respect of some zones. But in 
the first place this is not a complete network, 
and secondly there is some danger that in case 

34 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

of war Great Britain might cut the cables 
which are not under her control and render 
them useless. 

The invention of wireless telegraphy now 
provides a means of release from cable connec- 
tions. England therefore followed the fur- 
ther development of this science with great at- 
tention and was successful in procuring the 
establishment of the Marconi Company in 
England. She made the greatest efforts to 
secure the monopoly of wireless telegraphy 
and therefore to rule the world by this means 
of communication. Thanks to German sci- 
ence this did not succeed. We have surpassed 
the efficiency of Marconi's apparatus and by 
that means have won for ourselves certain com- 
pensation for the network of cables which we 
do not possess. True, up to now only within 
certain limits, that is to say, in so far as our 
apparatus are able to work efficiently and in so 
far as we possess stations which can pass on 
news. It is therefore of the greatest impor- 

35 



THE GERMAN EMPIRES 

tance that the Emperor was recently able to 
exchange a wireless conversation with the 
President of the United States of America 
by means of our apparatus. 

It is quite comprehensible and universally 
acknowledged that England by way of precau- 
tionary measures against a serious conflict 
with Germany has secured powerful allies. It 
is not yet quite clear to what extent, in addition 
to Russia and France, smaller States such as 
Belgium, Denmark, the Balkan States, etc., 
are concerned. As they will have to reckon 
not only with the German Empire but also 
with the members of the Triple Alliance, it 
has become apparent that the parts which the 
three Powers will play have been distributed. 
Great Britain herself is acknowledgedly work- 
ing to conceal her objects and to lull to sleep 
the German Michael, but on the other hand 
presents a stern countenance to Italy. The 
latter's growing fleet and especially the pos- 

S6 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

session of the Turkish islands in the iEgean 
Sea, which have remained in her possession 
since the Turco-Italian War, constitute a very 
uncomfortable factor for the complete com- 
mand of the Mediterranean. 

It even appears that the Porte is quite satis- 
fied and therefore delays the withdrawal of the 
last of her officers from the Tripoli Hinter- 
land, as meanwhile Italy is justified in retain- 
ing the Islands, a circumstance which ensures 
them against attempts by others to secure 
them. Now, as Sir Edward Grey has ex- 
pressed the opinion that the situation in Eu- 
rope will not become normal so long as a great 
Power possesses these Islands, it is easy to see 
how uneasily Italy regards the pressure which 
the English Minister desires to exercise. And 
the more so as at the same time he was desirous 
of leaving the evacuation of the part of Al- 
bania, which was still in the possession of the 
Greeks, entirely in their discretion, and they 

37 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

in raising "Holy Battalions" in the territory 
in question do not present a very complaisant 
attitude. 

I should put against Homer Lea's propo- 
sition, that Great Britain to maintain her po- 
sition as a World Power must annihilate Ger- 
many — that is to say, not only rob her of her 
fleet and cripple her commerce, but also de- 
stroy her land forces — the view that England 
can have no desire to annihilate our army. 
That would be contrary to the whole of her pol- 
icy to date. A strong Power on land on the 
European Continent is indispensable to her 
so that she may induce it to go to war on land 
against any State which might become dan- 
gerous to her sea power. This is the principle 
on which she has always played the political 
game with the Powers on the mainland. For 
example, at the commencement of the Aus- 
trian War of Succession France was Eng- 
land's most dangerous rival on the seas, as she 
was considerably increasing her Colonial pos- 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

sessions. Austria was the great Power on 
land, and therefore the Island Kingdom lent 
her support in the struggle against Prussia 
who was allied with France. After she had 
commenced in 1755 to come into direct conflict 
with France at sea she had to forego assistance 
to Austria, who had become allied with Russia 
and France to overcome Frederick the Great, 
and placed herself on the side of the King of 
Prussia whom she had recently been fighting. 
But when she had attained her object, when in 
1758 she had driven the French ships from the 
East Indies and taken the French possessions 
in Senegal, when in 1760 by the capture of 
Montreal she had torn Canada from the 
French and had put to shame their navy that 
she could put her full power in the West In- 
dies and limit herself in European waters to 
a blockade, when therefore the soaring power 
of France had been utterly destroyed in all 
quarters of the globe, she quite unexpectedly 
withdrew her support from the Prussian Alli- 

39 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

ance. Prussia had done her duty in leading 
off French activity from the sea. She could 
now look after herself in dealing with her en- 
emy, as England had no further cause for 
damaging the latter. This sudden change of 
front is usually associated with the resigna- 
tion of Pitt, as if the latter's friendship with 
Frederick had determined the attitude of 
Great Britain. But such sentimental feel- 
ings cannot be credited to an English States- 
man. 

Austria is no longer capable of continuing 
to play the part against France which Eng- 
land formerly assigned to her. On the other 
hand a new Power has arisen in Russia, 
whose vital interests are in direct conflict with 
those of England. The equilibrium can only 
be 'maintained as regards Russia if a strong 
military force can be put up against her. 
France is not suitable for this purpose, as after 
the prostration of Germany the former would 
immediately re-enter the lists as the second 

40 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

European sea and Colonial Power against 
England. This role against Russia can there- 
fore only be assigned to Germany ; and the al- 
liance of England and Russia against Ger- 
many which is obviously contrary to the in- 
terests of both sides, in addition to the fervent 
wish to break the latter's commercial power, 
is also — perhaps only unconsciously — invested 
with the object of thoroughly undermining the 
old friendship of both States, in order to play 
off the German against the Russian at some 
future date. Therefore England has no ob- 
ject in annihilating Germany's land forces — 
on the contrary her object in war can only be 
the destruction of the tatter's Navy, sparing 
if possible her Army. 

The question comes whether the superior 
English battle fleet is alone capable of doing 
this. This question is answered by a British 
author, J. S. Corbett, an acknowledged expert 
and lecturer on Naval Strategy, who has laid 
down universally accepted principles in his 

41 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

work Some Principles of Maritime Strategy, 
and relies on the methods of conducting a 
Naval War which have hitherto prevailed. 
According to him the whose history of naval 
warfare shows that a fight between two fleets 
directed to the destruction of one of them can 
only take place with the consent of both par- 
ties. The desire of both sides not to avoid 
a decisive action can alone bring about such 
a result in open battle; but this can only be 
presumed if each side considers it has a chance 
of success, that is to say, if they are approxi- 
mately equal in strength. If this be not so, 
the weaker side will according to experience 
diligently endeavor to draw the other on and 
so to gradually weaken him by small attacks 
and diminish his powers that a grand assault 
may eventually be risked with chances of suc- 
cess. In the face of such tactics the stronger 
side, as Corbett maintains, has always found 
itself in a difficult position. 

Every day by which a decision is postponed 
43 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

wastes much money — and nowadays coal in 
addition, which it is always difficult to re- 
place. Every day may bring unpleasant sur- 
prises, and therefore he must try and bring 
about a decisive result as quickly as possible. 
To this end only two ways are open; he must 
either attempt to destroy by force under fire 
of coast defenses the obstructions by means of 
which the enemy has secured himself in his hid- 
ing place, and force an entrance into the har- 
bor into which the latter has retired — (and he 
has rarely possessed the courage for that) — 
or he must attempt to bombard him out. This 
is however not usually possible from seawards 
in the case of well designed war harbors, but 
only through forces which have been landed 
for this purpose and which have been provided 
with the necessary heavy artillery so as to win 
by quick assault positions which will enable 
the shelling of the enemy's fleet anchored in 
harbor, and compel it to come out and seek 
battle. 

43 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

Examples of this are furnished by the tac- 
tics of the Americans at Santiago and the 
Japanese at Port Arthur. The question 
arises whether in the coming war with Ger- 
many the Continental Powers for the time be- 
ing allied with Great Britain will perform this 
duty, and this cannot be affirmed with cer- 
tainty because the interests clash. Both Pow- 
ers seek a decision by the nearest road between 
Berlin and their Capitals and have no induce- 
ment to divide and weaken their forces by de- 
voting not inconsiderable masses of troops and 
heavy material to the investment of our marine 
fortresses. They would much rather destroy 
Germany's land forces but if possible spare 
her navy as a menace to their future enemy 
Great Britain. They will be just as much 
alive as we are to the hitherto constant 
policy of England, and to foresee such fu- 
ture hostility. Therefore if England wishes 
to attain her object in war, the destruction 
of the German Navy, she will nolens vo~ 

44 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

lens have to devote her own forces thereto and 
we shall not be far wrong in assuming that the 
British expeditionary force of 150,000 men 
will be destined as an invading force to sup- 
port her fleet. 

The further question, how this invading 
force is to be handled, especially to what ex- 
tent it is to take part in the operations of the 
allied land forces and to be treated as reen- 
forcements thereof may likewise be answered 
by some words of the English naval strategist. 
They are as follows: — 

"This is certain, whoever commands the sea 
possesses full freedom of trade and can derive 
as much or as little profit from the war as he 
pleases, whilst even the strongest land force 
will experience great difficulties." . . . 

"If the scope of the war was unlimited, and 
in consequence thereof the whole power of the 
enemy is called out on that principle, it is clear 
that a decisive result could only be obtained 
after his forces have been completely shat- 

45 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

tered. If it was not the intention to attempt 
this then it was false policy to endeavor to 
reach the goal by force, that is to say the war 
should not have been entered into. In the 
case of a limited object the annihilation of the 
whole of the enemy's defenses is outside the 
scope of what was necessary." . . . 

"If we now turn to England's experience 
in Continental wars we find that she often took 
part in a war on land, and we also find that she 
almost, without exception, ran up against the 
great reluctance of the people, as if there were 
something in it repugnant to national in- 
stincts." . . . 

These three quotations give us a complete 
picture of England's customary manner of 
taking part in the wars of Continental Pow- 
ers. Since the commencement of the seven- 
teenth century she always had at her disposal 
the necessary means of assuring herself of the 
command of the sea, or at any rate of main- 
taining a very favorable situation, which Cor- 

46 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

bett calls "combative command of the sea." 
This fortunate country was almost invariably 
in the position of interfering in the wars of 
European Powers and "getting for herself 
as much as she wanted." 

What she did want, we see from the second 
quotation. Corbett is an admirer of our strat- 
egist Clausewitz, and follows that teacher in 
discriminating between the two different kinds 
of war, the limited and unlimited. Clause- 
witz describes it in the words: "This two-fold 
method of war consists of, (1) where the ob- 
ject is the prostration of the enemy, either an- 
nihilating him politically or simply disarming 
him and therefore forcing him to the desired 
conditions of peace, and (2) where it is simply 
desired to wrest from him certain possessions 
on the frontiers of his Kingdom either for the 
purpose of keeping them permanently or using 
them as a useful means of exchange on the dec- 
laration of peace." 

The first case demands the entire exertions 
47 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

of the whole people, the second does not. 
Clausewitz gives an illuminating example of 
war with limited objects in a Memorandum 
of 1830-31 which contains a project of a war 
against France. Circumstances did not per- 
mit the taking into consideration of the com- 
plete prostration of that State, and the pro- 
gram of our strategists was therefore di- 
rected to making the annexation of Belgium 
the real object of the attack. 

"This country of moderate size and great re- 
sources is surrounded by Holland and Ger- 
many; consequently after its annexation the 
army of occupation will not find itself at the 
corner of a triangle extending into a large hos- 
tile territory, and for that reason such an an- 
nexation could be permanently maintained 
under ordinary circumstances. . . . However 
strongly the French may establish themselves 
in Belgium they would still, as they are situ- 
ated, be weaker there than in the middle of 
their own country. When the command of 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

the Meuse has been obtained the annexation of 
Belgium may be regarded as an actual fact. 
. . . We therefore consider that if the allied 
forces can gain a victory anywhere (and this 
must be considered as necessary 'in every of- 
fensive design'), such victory would produce 
the easiest yet least secure result in the annex- 
ation of Belgium." 

If we examine the history of England we 
must asknowledge that she at times exerted 
herself to the uttermost by the utilization of 
individual portions of her armament, navy, 
and finances, but never has known that demand 
on the whole of her population by calling out 
every man capable of bearing arms as Prussia 
and Germany did in 1813 and France in 1870. 
She was careful to avoid this by never having 
in view unlimited aims, which is a brilliant 
illustration of Clausewitz's precepts. She 
never, with the exception of her colonial wars, 
desired to completely annex any country, or 
completely annihilate any enemy. 

49 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

The objects which she desired to attain by 
her own powers were also limited; with the 
exception of certain over-sea possessions, the 
destruction of hostile marine forces or com- 
mercial interests. This may have arisen 
partly from a very clever policy and partly 
also may have had its reason in the sentiments 
of the people, as mentioned by Corbett. The 
English people never had any feeling or sym- 
pathy for the exacting military service neces- 
sary for wars on land, which presses the rifle 
into the hands of the masses and tears them 
from their hearths and homes. She either em- 
ployed mercenaries for this purpose or knew 
how to make her allies bleed for her, and as far 
as the latter were concerned the war easily be- 
came an unlimited one. In this respect we 
need only refer again to the wars of Frederick 
the Great. 

Therefore, England only wages wars of lim- 
ited scope and employs her army unwillingly. 
From this point of view one may draw conclu- 

50 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

sions as to her future conduct with regard to 
the employment of her army of invasion as to 
which Corbett again gives an indication. He 
says : — 

"The expeditionary force must either un- 
reservedly take part as an organic unit of the 
Power which is conducting the unlimited war, 
or a certain territorial area of operations must 
be assigned to it with independent leadership 
and with an organization independent of the 
Commander-in-Chief of the allied force, but 
with limited activity." . . . 

"But that which may be called the British or 
maritime method is in fact the application of 
limited methods in the conduct of an unlimited 
war in combination with the larger operations 
of our allies — a method which has generally 
been open to us as it has enabled our command 
of the sea to select a theater of war which was 
in fact limited." . . . 

This illustrates the whole peculiarity of 
England's conduct of wars on land. They 

51 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

presume that their continental ally will have 
to conduct an unlimited war, as the chief bur- 
den will be gradually put on to him. It is on 
the other hand emphasized as typically Brit- 
ish that the expeditionary force must, if possi- 
ble, be kept away from the latter plan. Its 
cooperation, therefore, as an organic portion 
of our enemy's forces is only to be looked for 
if Great Britain actually has no other means 
of reaching her special goal. 

But the clearest explanation of all is af- 
forded by a glance at military history, as Cor- 
bett explains it. 

Since the war of the Spanish succession, in 
which Marlborough with the British auxiliary 
forces marched deep into the South of Ger- 
many in order to fight in combination with the 
Imperial troops sanguinary and decisive bat- 
tles against Louis XIV, an English force has 
never again wandered about on the Continent 
whenever the slightest uncertainty was pres- 
ent. Particularly in Holland, and in the wars 

52 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

of Frederick the Great in Hanover, that is to 
say, always close to the sea coast, we see Brit- 
ish troops carrying on a slow and laborious war 
and carefully avoiding a decisive result. Who 
will forget the feeble behavior of the Duke of 
Cumberland, of which Fontenoy in 1745, La- 
feld in 1747, Hastenbeck in 1757, and the cap- 
itulation at Kloster Zeven are examples? 

Likewise in the course of the Spanish War 
against Napoleon, in which the unlucky Moore 
was replaced by the more skilful Lord Welles- 
ley, we see, so long as the enemy was not ren- 
dered completely powerless, a careful mainte- 
nance of communication with the sea. And 
wherever such was interrupted on one side it 
was at once skilfully reunited in another direc- 
tion. On one occasion only do we see an Eng- 
lish force taking part in a decisive battle, at 
Waterloo. But on this occasion hesitation to 
obtain a decisive result presented the danger 
of a very undesirable prolongation of the war 
in case of defeat of the allied continental 

53 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

forces, and Wellington found himself in a pe- 
culiar difficulty. 

"Therefore, all through we see the endeavor 
to keep up communication with the base, that 
is to say , for England, with the sea coast, in 
so far as practicable harbors are available for 
embarkation, and to avoid every decisive action 
so long as this is not enforced by the situation; 
and at the same time to avoid too close a junc- 
tion with the operations of the allies: that is 
what may be called the British or maritime 
method' 9 

With these premises we may now endeavor 
to picture to ourselves the probable procedure 
of Great Britain in case of a conflict with Ger- 
many. 

She would, of course, most of all desire en- 
tirely independent action for her land forces, 
and if she is assured, through the preparations 
and available numbers of her allies' forces, 
that the latter will be able to deal alone with 
our armies, she will be able to preserve for her- 

54 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

self this independence through being able to 
choose the theater of her operations. If she 
cannot be certain of this, and if the independ- 
ent action of her expeditionary forces becomes 
doubtful, then she will have to take part as an 
organic unit in the larger operations. In that 
case a landing in Belgium, previously entirely 
freed from the influence of German troops, 
would enable the British troops to furnish an 
extension of the French left wing. 

We are involuntarily reminded of the oppo- 
sition which was raised in the English Press 
to Holland's scheme of renewing the old forti- 
fications of Flushing, and replacing them with 
new constructions, which would not only pro- 
tect the recently enlarged harbor against an 
enemy but would also prove an obstacle to the 
navigation of the West Scheld to Antwerp. 

In view of the indisputable right of the sov- 
ereign state to provide an important harbor 
for the protection of its fleet (Holland only 
possesses one other, namely, the Helder) , and 

55 



THE GERMAN EMPIRES 

to fulfil the duties imposed upon it by its neu- 
trality, it strikes one as peculiar that the Press 
of France and Belgium, in combination with 
the English Press, endeavored by ingenious 
and untenable arguments and representations 
to intimidate the Dutch into wrecking the 
plans of the Government. 

Therefrom must be drawn the evidence for 
the assumption that England, in case of a con- 
flict with Germany, intends to land her expe- 
ditionary force in Antwerp so as to support 
France. And even if the new fortifications of 
Flushing, whilst limited to a single fort on the 
right bank, may not be capable of holding out 
any length of time against an assault, yet they 
might exert a very disturbing influence on the 
entrance of such a large fleet of transports as 
would be required for the passage of the Brit- 
ish Army, and would very much delay an 
intended landing at Antwerp. Everything 
would depend upon the great speed of this 
movement. Otherwise British assistance would 

56 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

come too late and would be practically value- 
less. 

Let us assume that the British expeditionary 
force would by this means, or some other, join 
the French left wing and take a timely part 
in the operations; and if we assume that the 
first great success will have been obtained over 
our army and that the latter has its hands full 
with the French forces, then the curtain will 
draw up on the second act of the operations of 
the British troops, as they will then be able to 
free themselves from the undesirable "unlim- 
ited" method and be able to proceed independ- 
ently, that is to say, they will seek "a limited 
area of operation." According to Great Brit- 
ain's War Game this can only be the German 
North Sea coast, to the harbors of which the 
German fleet, as being the weaker, will in our 
view have retired. The British Navy will be 
ready lying in wait for the German ships which 
will be driven out by the artillery of the land 
forces attacking the fortresses, and will be 

57 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

ready to destroy it, as was done at Port Ar- 
thur. 

What period of time this would demand it 
is impossible to judge. The experience of 
Port Arthur warns us that it would involve 
heavy sacrifices both of time and lives. At 
any rate, the goal cannot be reached in a turn 
of the hand; and, therefore, it is not impossi- 
ble that the investing army's lines of communi- 
cation with French or Belgian harbors will be 
gravely endangered by German operations. 
England has always shown great skill in 
changing her lines of communication when 
these were in danger. A good example of her 
methods under such circumstances is furnished 
by England's Campaign in Spain against Na- 
poleon in the years 1808 and 1809. 

Napoleon advanced victoriously from Mad- 
rid against the British troops in Portugal. 
An English Corps under the command of Sir 
John Moore, which he believed to be in re- 
treat, evaded him and threatened his lines of 

58 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

communication from the direction of the Do- 
uro. On Napoleon turning against him and 
breaking his (Moore's) lines of communica- 
tion with Lisbon he withdrew to the north- 
west, followed by the French Marshal, 
Soult, and in the meantime the British Gen- 
eral, Baird, had landed at Corunna. Al- 
though the ships were late, and Moore had to 
give battle in front of the town, in which he 
himself fell, the embarkation was successful 
and the English Corps was enabled to return 
home. 

In case of a war against Germany, England 
has made ample preparations and has secured 
herself a second line of communication, as she 
has exercised great influence on the enlarge- 
ment of the hitherto very small harbor of Es- 
bjerg, on the Danish West Coast of Jutland. 
Esbjerg is only about twenty-eight kilometers 
(44.8 miles) from the Danish-German Fron- 
tier, and possesses a bay including an outer, 
inner, boat, and fishing harbor of about 15.7 

59 



THE GERMAN EMPIRES 

hectares (39.2 acres) with 3.8 (12% ft.) to 
6 meters (19.8 ft.) depth of water. The chan- 
nel through the Grautief has a uniform depth 
of over 7.5 (25 ft.), but was closed by a sand 
bar, through which a passage was dredged. 

These conditions were quite sufficient for 
the trade in butter and eggs carried in Eng- 
lish ships. But now the harbor basins are 
being first extended to 40.50 hectares (101.2 
acres), and 2,800 (5.5 miles) meters of quay 
are being built, which enclose a harbor space 
capable of being dredged out to approximately 
80 hectares (200 acres), and the depth of 
water is to be brought up to eight meters (26.4 
ft.). It is obvious that such a dispropor- 
tionate extension of the harbor works can- 
not be attributed to the export of butter and 
eggs. 

There can be no doubt that in case of a war 
Denmark will be found on the side of our ene- 
mies. That is evidenced by all the new de- 
fense works of that kingdom. The marine 

60 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

fortresses of Copenhagen are being increased 
and strengthened principally for closing the 
Channel (primarily the Drogden) in a south- 
erly direction, thus toward German waters. 
The land fortress which would chiefly be em- 
ployed against an attack from the North is 
being neglected and will probably be entirely 
abandoned. But still more important are the 
new defenses of the Great Belt. 

Flanking this is a broad bay between the 
Islands of Seeland, Falster, Laaland and 
Langeland, the outlets of which are all closed 
by forts, so that it resembles a fox's earth. It 
offers innumerable hiding places on the broken 
coasts of the Islands which enable a sudden 
pounce not only on the bay of Kiel and the 
Fehmarn Belt but also on the outlet of Oere 
Sound, and is extraordinarily difficult to at- 
tack. It was quite superfluous for the Min- 
ister Neergard to announce the object of this 
fortified bay as follows: "The means of com- 
munication by several routes with the theater 

61 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

of war at sea, thereby making it possible to 
attack the enemy's fleet." 

So if, on the one hand, Belgium is selected 
as a means to enable the British invading force 
to join in a war with unlimited aims in its first 
proceeding, Denmark is given the part in the 
second proceeding, the war of limited scope, 
of (in our case) furnishing strong support in 
an assault on German harbors and the destruc- 
tion of our fleet and providing a base for the 
employment of the land forces. 2 

With the exception of small unimportant 
operations of the British Navy, Great Britain 
would, according to Corbett, hand over to her 
allies the task of keeping the German land 
forces so employed that only weak detach- 
ments thereof could be sent to combat the 
English operations, whereas the latter's sole 
object would be the annihilation of our fleet, 

2 It should be remembered that the nearest British harbor, 
Yarmouth, is nearly three and a half times as far from the 
mouth of the Elbe as Esbjerg, which therefore offers a fav- 
orable point d'appui to the English fleet. 

62 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

and for this purpose the landing force would 
only have to deal with inferior forces. 

Now the question comes whether England's 
allies are quite agreeable to such a division of 
labor and the limitation of the British forces 
to this narrow sphere. According to the opin- 
ions of an anonymous French officer of the 
General Staff, this is very doubtful. He ex- 
presses himself on the principal points as 
follows 3 : — 

1. Object of landing. "As far as the stra- 
tegic point of view is concerned this will 
depend on the general military situation. It 
may be necessary to hasten to the assistance 
of the French against the German troops in- 
vading France, or to help the Russians, who 
may be pressed by the Germans and Austrians 
on the Weichsel and the Dniester." 

"A feeling of uneasiness will be awakened; 
the people will become unruly; the soldiers 

s Die Englische Invasion in Deuischland, von einem f ranzosi- 
schen General-stabs-offizier. Published by Politik, Berlin, 1912. 

63 



j 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

perhaps defeated. . . . All that gradually cre- 
ates a breach in the self-reliance of all con- 
cerned. . . . Other allies may appear on the 
scene, Danes or Dutch according to circum- 
stances. . . ." 

2. Place of landing. In short — anywhere. 
The author favors the Ems and the mouth of 
the Weichsel ; but he also considers other spots 
on the Baltic coast (Danish territory) suit- 
able. 

3. Method of landing. Deception as to the 
intended spot, and surprise. 

Of course these opinions as to the employ- 
ment of the British landing force are not to 
be regarded as applicable to the management 
of the French forces. At the same time they 
give an idea of the wishes entertained in gen- 
eral staff circles of our neighbor on the West 
and expressed to their British ally ; they would 
like to consider the English expeditionary 
force as a purely auxiliary force, as reenf orce- 
ments, not to operate independently according 

m 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

to a plan determined by the English Com- 
mander-in-Chief, but only placed ready to step 
in and help where the progress of war makes 
it desirable, and pull this or the other ally out 
of a difficulty, whether it be the French in their 
own country or the Russians on the Weichsel 
or Dniester. It is to be assumed that the 
English fleet will be able to deal with the Ger- 
man even without any support of land forces. 
The Allies do not trouble at all about the com- 
plete annihilation of the latter's fleet. This 
point of view cropped up on one occasion in 
connection with the pledge given by the Eng- 
lish Government to France to send an auxil- 
iary force in case of war with Germany. It 
was only conceived as being auxiliary to the 
French army, and there was no question of 
its independent employment for special pur- 
poses in England's interests. It seemed to be 
the opinion in France that Great Britain 
would quite unselfishly devote her forces to the 
interests of France. This is, of course, quite 

65 



THE GERMAN EMPIRES 

out of the question, as this State (England) 
has never subordinated her own interests to 
those of other states or nations, but on the con- 
trary has, in many instances, made their forces 
serve her own ends and interests. 

Therefore a great diversity of interests, evi- 
denced by their divergent wishes, appears to 
arise between England and her allies; Great 
Britain desires to annihilate our navy whilst 
if possible sparing our army ; France and Rus- 
sia would like to destroy the German Army 
and preserve the Navy as a counter to be sub- 
sequently employed against the increasing 
predominance of England. It is interesting 
to observe from the opinions of the French 
officer that they confidently rely on the assist- 
ance of Denmark, and even of the Nether- 
lands, but are discreetly silent about Belgium. 

If the cooperation of the neutral states is 
not opportunely secured before the commence- 
ment of the war it is to be attained by the 
appearance of English troops on the German 

66 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

coast, which may have a disastrous effect on 
the morale of our own troops, although, ac- 
cording to the author, the army of invasion on 
the coast would soon be stopped by the Ger- 
mans and would then be relegated to the de- 
fensive. But it is not likely that England will 
agree to her landing force being paralyzed in 
this manner. 

The extraordinary preparations of both her 
allies were apparently designed to make Eng- 
land stiff-necked. If her design is to destroy 
the German Navy in any circumstances; if, 
according to Corbett's opinion, she is going to 
entrust to her expeditionary force a limited 
sphere of war and drive our fleet, if it with- 
draws into harbor, out under the fire of her 
battleships' guns, she cannot believe that the 
war will soon be terminated, as these opera- 
tions will require time, much time. 

But if superior French and Russian forces 
simultaneously invading Germany on both 
sides succeed (and this is what the abnormal 

67 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

preparations are for) in crushing our army by 
a few heavy blows, then England might not 
have sufficient time for her long-winded opera- 
tions (investment of and capture of the har- 
bors), and this is quite apart, as we just said, 
from the consideration that she has no interest 
in the complete destruction of the German 
land forces. Perhaps that is why England is 
at present more amiably inclined toward us. 
Perhaps also the reflection is gaining ground 
that an attack on and destruction of our navy 
and commercial marine might not be carried 
out without sorrow and loss to her own coun- 
try. Germany is Great Britain's best cus- 
tomer, and in many respects the latter relies on 
our industry. Great Britain has more trading 
ships on the sea than we have, and they are no 
less exposed to destruction by our cruisers 
than ours by the English. 

Complete protection to English trading ves- 
sels on distant seas cannot be assured by their 
navy if they have to maintain in European 

68 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

waters the highest possible superiority over 
our fleet. 

Finally, the Island Kingdom is to such a 
large extent dependent on the regular import 
of necessities of life, that a blockade would 
very quickly bring about a famine, coupled 
probably with very grave dangers. This is 
opportunely evidenced by the dockers' strike, 
which actually threatened the population of 
the capital with famine by depriving it of the 
imports which were in the docks. England 
has therefore to stomach these disadvantages 
against the advantages of her protected situ- 
ation as regards invasion. So long as the 
Island Empire was actually mistress of the 
sea such conditions could not arise, and she 
could indulge in the luxury of neglecting her 
own agricultural production and devote all 
her energies to her industries, feeding herself 
from abroad. But those times are gone for- 
ever. England cannot conceal from herself 
that she must even now share the command 

69 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

of the sea with other nations, and the de- 
struction of our navy would not avail her, as 
navies are springing up in all directions and 
even wealthy Albion cannot continue to keep 
pace with the universal struggle for sea power. 
The less so as it is not only a question of the 
great expense but also in a very important 
degree of the manning of powerful battleships 
which are continually being added to and 
which are absolutely useless without very 
strong complements. We have lately been 
informed by Secretary of State von Tirpitz, 
that England's naval expenditure in the last 
five years has risen 216 millions but Ger- 
many's only 55 millions (marks or shillings) ; 
and that our expenditure is far less not only 
than England's but also than that of her two 
allies; France's increase being 134, and Rus- 
sia's for the Baltic fleet alone nearly 302 mil- 
lions. That may cause Britain to think a bit. 
But with regard to the second point, the 
personnel, it is an open secret how difficult it 

70 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

is even on a moderate increase of a navy to 
provide in good time and train correspond- 
ingly increasing crews, and not only sailors 
but particularly engineers and officers. The 
difficulty which Great Britain in particular ex- 
periences in this respect is no secret. It is 
asserted — and it can hardly be a mistake — that 
Mr. Churchill suggested a year's holiday in 
naval construction to Germany in order to 
make up the deficiency in the personnel of 
the fleet. A crafty move, as England could 
amply employ her dockyards by building for 
other Powers, and would not even be obliged 
to go short, as in case of need she could im- 
press into her own navy the foreign ships lying 
in her yards. But the stupid Michael did not 
enter the trap — simply because he did not 
know how otherwise to employ his dockyard 
hands during a whole year. The proposal, 
however, did contribute to make our Chamber 
of Deputies (Reichstag) — let us say — more 
careful — as the word "suspicious" is at present 

71 



THE GERMAN EMPIRES 

barred — in bewaring of our cousins on the 
other side of the Channel. And it will not 
be beside the purpose to remember that in 
1870 England at the request of France made 
confidential inquiries of the Prussian Govern- 
ment whether the latter would not sanction 
a decrease in the Army, to be simultaneously 
effected by each State in the interests of the 
peace of Europe. 

This happened almost immediately before 
the outbreak of war with France, on whose 
share in originating it I need not enlarge. 4 

To be sure England has at present every 
reason for not seeking war with Germany 
without cause. It is said that the relations of 
the two States are happily developing on the 
lines of an understanding and rapprochement; 
it is becoming acknowledged that they can 
work with and alongside each other on many 
points and questions, that their interests are 
identical in many respects. And as you call 

4 See Bismarck's letter of 9-2-1870. 

72 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

into a wood so a conciliatory echo replies. 
But it must not be forgotten that it was 
England that brought about this menacing 
coalition, which is at bottom unquestionably 
unnatural, because it has no common interests, 
and it was England that exerted herself to 
estrange us from our few remaining friends. 
It can hardly be believed that our blood 
relationship carries the slightest weight with 
England, and that she would refrain from at- 
tack because we have never yet crossed swords 
with each other. Why should England have 
ever had the idea of fighting us, as long as we 
had not the audacity to build a fleet in order 
to shield our coasts and our great and increas- 
ing trade? It was that — just that — which 
completely altered our relations. If, there- 
fore, Great Britain has reasons for not pro- 
ceeding rashly and is carefully restraining 
herself, we must nevertheless not conceal from 
ourselves that she will seize every favorable 
opportunity of attacking us unawares and de- 

73 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

livering her declaration of war with the first 
shells at our coast resorts. Even if she is in 
favor of peace her allies will presumably not 
be inclined to perpetually burden themselves 
for nothing with an armament which cannot 
be long supported, especially by France. If 
she thinks the proper moment has arrived, 
England will not hang back. 



74 



II 

RUSSIA'S PREPARATION FOR WAR 
WITH GERMANY AND AUSTRIA 

GERMANY AND AUSTRIA STAND IN THE WAY 
OF RUSSIAN EXPANSION 

Our eastern neighbor has really no cause for 
a grudge against Germany. Although the 
latter's conduct at the Berlin Congress of 1878 
has always been regarded in Russia as disloyal 
and has given rise to bad feeling, we on our 
part are fully justified in recalling past events 
which Prince Bismarck set out in his Thoughts 
and Recollections, 1 from which I will therefore 
quote at length. 

On Russia demanding whether Germany 
would remain neutral if the former went to war 
with Austria, Bismarck being pressed for a 

i Gedcmken und Erirmenmgen, Vol. II, page 214. 

75 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

definite answer replied to the Ambassador: 
"Our first requirement is to maintain friend- 
ship between the great monarchies, which in 
case of revolution had more to lose than they 
would gain in fighting amongst themselves. 
If, to our chagrin, this is not possible as be- 
tween Russia and Austria, then we could very 
well sit still and see our friends losing or win- 
ning battles against each other, but not that 
one of them should be so badly wounded and 
damaged that its position as an independent 
and great Power in the Councils of Europe 
would be endangered." On that the Russian 
thunder was deflected from Galicia toward the 
Balkans, and Russia, at the treaty of Reich- 
stadt, bought Austria's neutrality at the cost 
of Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

"Even after the Berlin Congress the posi- 
tion of Russia remained one of the most, if not 
the most, favorable, which she at any time pos- 
sessed after the Turkish War"; 2 but "Russia, 

2 II, page 106. 

76 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

contrary to all truth and sense, gave way to 
exasperation at the result of the Berlin Con- 
gress. This arose in consequence of the utter- 
ances of the Russian Press, which, at any rate 
with regard to foreign matters, is so little 
understood by the people, and the pressure 
brought to bear. The whole influence of 
Gortschakow . . . was strong enough to pro- 
duce in the Press, with Wedomosti of Moscow 
at its head, a semblance of irritation at the 
damage which Russia had suffered at the Ber- 
lin Congress as a result of Germany's perfidy. 
Now no desire of Russia was expressed at the 
Berlin Congress of which Germany might not 
have procured acceptance, if necessary, by 
means of energetic representations to Eng- 
land's Prime Minister. . . . Instead of being 
grateful for this it seemed to answer Russia's 
policy, under the guidance of . . . Prince 
Gortschakow and the Moscow papers, to con- 
tinue to bring about the further estrangement 
of Russia and Germany, for which there was 

77 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

not the slightest need in the interests of either 
of them. We do not envy each other and we 
cannot get anything from one another which 
would be of use to us." 3 

"During the diplomatic negotiations with 
regard to the execution of the decisions of the 
Berlin Congress it was expected in St. Peters- 
burg that we would as a matter of course and 
without any previous understanding between 
Berlin and St. Petersburg carry out every 
Russian interpretation as opposed to the 
Anglo-Austrian. The request which I hinted 
at and finally expressed, that Russia should 
confidentially but clearly communicate her 
wishes to us, was evaded, and I received the 
impression that Prince Gortschakow expected 
me, like a lady her admirer, to guess and rep- 
resent the wishes of Russia without the latter 
iterating them and taking responsibility there- 
for. Even in cases where we could be pre- 
sumed to be fully acquainted with Russia's 

s II, page 108. 

78 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

interests and views, and we desired to volun- 
tarily give her evidence of our friendship, so 
long as this was not to our detriment, we ex- 
perienced, in place of the recognition we 
expected, a grumbling disapproval because we 
did not obtain what was expected by our Rus- 
sian friends. Even when we did so we had 
no better success. The whole of this proceed- 
ing showed a calculated dishonesty not only 
toward ourselves but also to the Emperor 
Alexander, to whom German policy was made 
to appear as dishonorable and unreliable." 4 

"It is well known that in consequence of 
these intrigues the Emperor Alexander was 
induced to write a letter in his own hand to the 
Emperor William, the contents of which were 
somewhat as follows : 'If Germany continues 
to refuse to accommodate itself to the voice of 
Russia, peace cannot be maintained between 
us.' " 5 

As long ago as 1879 it was due only to the 

* II, pages 217-218. s n, page 219. 

79 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

wisdom and amiability of our aged Emperor 
that Gortschakow's coquetting with France 
did not lead to war between Germany and 
Russia. But perhaps the French did not 
consider the moment opportune, as may be 
gathered from the Russian Prince's words: 
"J'aurais voulu faire la guerre, mais la France 
a d'autres intentions." 6 

There is no doubt that the complaints about 
our behavior at the Berlin Congress were only 
pretexts, the want of justification for which 
has long been recognized by Russian diploma- 
tists; but they form a convenient means of 
agitation and for that reason are always dug 
up again. The political motives which jeop- 
ardized Germany's friendship lay in another 
direction. We shall recognize them in follow- 
ing Russia's exertions for expansion. 

Homer Lea is our guide. From the com- 
mencement of the eighteenth century Russia 
began to steer her extending movements in 

e II, page 319. 

80 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

definite directions of which the indispensable 
possession of sea coasts was the first consid- 
eration. However far the Empire might ex- 
tend from the Dnieper to Behring Straits and 
from the Arctic Ocean to the northwest shore 
of the Caspian, this did not enable communi- 
cation with the sea, as the northern coasts are 
ice-bound and the Caspian has no outlet. On 
the northwest it was necessary to acquire the 
Baltic Sea by pressing Sweden. On the west 
to wrest Little and White Russia from the 
Poles. On the south they directed their gaze 
on the Black Sea; on the southeast the Cas- 
pian and the Caucasus had to be secured, and 
they fixed their eyes upon the road through 
Turkestan to India. On the east it was a mat- 
ter of acquiring hospitable stretches of coast 
on the Pacific. 

Russia spared no sacrifice of time and men 
to attain these ends and did not allow herself 
to be deterred by any reverses, however costly, 
from again traversing the same road, so as by 

SI 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

constant endeavor to achieve success. "Rus- 
sia in the course of her progress troubles her- 
self as little about her losses in war as the 
Russian nature about the wildernesses created 
by her winter. In the eighteenth century this 
Empire put 4,910,000 troops into the field; of 
these 1,380,000 survived. In the nineteenth 
century the total number of troops on active 
service came to 4,900,000 and the losses to 
1,410,000, and yet at the commencement of the 
eighteenth century Russia's population only 
amounted to 12,000,000, and at the com- 
mencement of the nineteenth century to 
38,000,000. . . . 

The courage and determination exhibited in 
every Russian scheme of expansion during the 
seventeenth century and for two hundred 
years prove that Russia would never volun- 
tarily abandon them. Hitherto these Rus- 
sians have never jibbed, never hesitated. 
Without haste, and even after a reverse ever 
full of hope, sober after victory, never casting 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

a glance at the ground which their battles have 
heaped with corpses, and their eyes firmly 
fixed on that distant but definite goal on which 
they were first directed." 7 

We have only to follow the expansion to- 
ward the northwest, west and south. On the 
west, after the destruction of the Kingdom of 
Poland, Russia pressed forward as far as the 
Pruth and across the Weichsel, in the north- 
west she acquired the Baltic Provinces, and 
squeezed Sweden out of Finland, in the south 
she became mistress of the whole of the Black 
Sea coast from the mouth of the Danube to 
the Caucasus. But even then her goal was 
not reached. The Baltic is only connected 
with the ocean by narrow and dangerous chan- 
nels and these Straits can with no great diffi- 
culty be completely closed. The outlet from 
the Black Sea through the Bosphorus and 
Hellespont (Dardanelles), is closed to the 
Russian fleet by Constantinople and various 

7 H. Lea, pages 130-31. 

8$ 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

treaties. In both directions Russia, it is true, 
has approached substantially nearer her ob- 
ject, but it is no longer small weak nations but 
Great Powers which bar her victorious path. 

The Russo- Turkish wars of the last century, 
although conducted ostensibly for freeing the 
Christian Balkan States from the Turkish 
yoke, were really purposed to bring them un- 
der the influence and suzerainty of Tsardom 
and to open the road to Constantinople. This 
affected Austria's interests in her most sensi- 
tive part as her entire trade to the East would 
have been jeopardized, and is the reason for 
the hostility of Russia and Austria, which must 
develop on every occasion when the question 
of the Balkan States arises. 

This became apparent in the last Balkan 
War wherein Russia played the role of "Spir- 
itus rector," and only refrained from declar- 
ing war, for which she was quite ready, on 
Austria, because her ally, France — just as in 
1879 — did not consider herself sufficiently 

Si 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

armed to successfully interfere. For behind 
her allies lay the German Empire, and Italy 
also became more firmly bound to her allies 
through the jeopardy of her considerably ex- 
tended interests in the Mediterranean. 

Russia perceives that she will never attain 
her ends in the Balkans without a victorious 
struggle not only with Austria but also with 
Germany. That binds her close to France, of 
whose support she is secure in all events if 
there is any chance of the Triple Alliance 
winning the mastery. Therefore it is not any 
interests of Russia directly conflicting with 
those of Germany which form the ground for 
their recent strong feeling against us but the 
opposition offered out of self-preservation by 
our allies to Russian endeavor in the Balkans, 
and the strenuous fidelity of the German Em- 
pire to its alliances. 

In the northwest, Russia has advanced to 
the Torne-elf. An interval of only 150 kilo- 
meters (98 miles) separates her most advanced 

S3 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

post from the coveted ocean harbor, Narvik, 
in the innermost bay of the Best Fiord; and it 
is only a country with five and a half millions 
of inhabitants which blocks her way. All 
preparations to fall upon the latter have been 
gradually made for ages; a railway was built 
up to the frontier river with its terminus at 
Tornea. But being a coast railway it is easily 
threatened by an enemy commanding the sea. 
Accordingly a second railway through the sea- 
board of Finland was completed up to within 
400 kilometers (248 miles) of the frontier, and 
a third line is contemplated in an easterly di- 
rection. 

Great exertions are being made to Russian- 
ize Finland and troops have been despatched 
to northern garrisons. In short, we cannot 
avoid the impression that Russia is making 
great preparations to hurl a mighty blow at 
Sweden's resistance and to hew out a path to 
Narvik on the Atlantic coast. But also in this 
respect Germany's opposition must be reckoned 

86 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

with. The Swedes are well aware of the dan- 
ger that threatens them. With the object of 
quickly despatching troops to the very thinly 
populated and most unfavorably situated 
northerly province of Norbotten and victual- 
ling them there, they have built a railway to 
the Torne-elf, and as a point of support have 
equipped a ring of fortresses on the Lule-elf, 
Boden, 100 kilometers from the frontier river, 
with all the resources of the science of fortifi- 
cation. Thus, breaking through to the coast 
will not be so easy. 

The whole population has however been 
greatly excited by the threatened danger, and 
judging by the procession of 33,000 peasants 
to Stockholm, is ready and willing to offer up 
life and property in defense of their father- 
land. At the same time many a longing 
glance is directed to Germany, the mighty 
people that springs from the same stock and 
whose armies would provide a powerful bul- 
wark for the hard-pressed little kingdom. 

87 



THE GERMAN EMPIRES 

Therefore it is not out of the reckoning that 
the threatening Russian danger may bring 
about a closer union between these two sympa- 
thetic nations with which Russia will have to 
reckon, and that is again an intelligible reason 
for her ill feeling toward Germany. 

Russia has to thank us for a great deal. If 
it had not been for the great immigration from 
our country the development of her culture 
would be much less advanced than it actually 
is. It is not too much to say that everything 
that has been done in Russia in the way of in- 
dustrial establishments has been effected prin- 
cipally under German management, and that 
even as regards the chief Government ap- 
pointments the most important work is in the 
hands of descendants of Germans, even though 
they be actually Russianized. 

Their best officers are mostly of German 
descent even if they have, as true Germans, 
devoted their services whole-heartedly to the 
state and have developed into the most loyal 

88 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

and, as distinguished from most inborn Rus- 
sians, devoted Russian subjects. The Rus- 
sians have never been grateful for the 
obligations which Germany has laid upon Rus- 
sia by the introduction of intellectual qualities 
and cultural development. On the contrary 
they have betrayed jealousy, envy and hate, 
and have done all they can on occasion to per- 
secute the Germans and forcibly drive them 
out of the country. 

The Slavs, as appears not only in Russia 
but also to an equal extent in the Slavonic 
provinces of Austria- Hungary and the Balkan 
Peninsula, possess a deep inborn hatred of 
Germany. That territory offers an all too fa- 
vorable soil for the germs of mistrust which 
France uninterruptedly endeavors to spread, 
and the amicable relations between the two 
countries which Gortschakow in his time would 
have entangled but for Bismarck's acute and 
skilful handling, terminated after the Balkan 
war ended so little in favor of Russia's aims. 

89 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

It cannot be denied that the bad feelings 
subsisting between the Balkan Allies, the Bul- 
garians and the Servians, have given Russian 
statesmen much trouble although, on the other 
hand, the fact that there is no statesman in the 
Balkans of great determination and power 
capable of withdrawing them, like Roumania, 
away from Russian suzerainty, has contrib- 
uted considerably to this state of affairs. 
Roumania has bitterly felt Russia's ingrati- 
tude for her unselfish assistance in the war of 
1877; but Bulgaria and Servia have already 
suffered so much from the unreliability and 
infidelity of the Tsar's Empire that it is aston- 
ishing to see them always bowing to the old 
yoke and following the seductive voice of St. 
Petersburg. 

It is only a short time since Servia, relying 
on the pledged assistance of Russia, without 
cause sought a conflict with Austria-Hungary 
and endeavored to persist in it with astonish- 
ing stubbornness until she saw that she could 

90 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

not expect any help from Russia. Was not 
Bulgaria placed in an extremely critical posi- 
tion in 1885 when the Tsar, on the outbreak 
of the Bulgaro- Servian war, recalled various 
Russian officers who had accepted important 
positions in the Bulgarian Army? Were they 
not again left in the lurch last year when they 
relied on Russia's promise to prevent Rou- 
mania entering the ring, and instead Rou- 
mania was, to a certain extent, requested to 
interfere in the interests of peace just as Bul- 
garia was being pressed on all sides by Servia, 
Greece, and Turkey. 

Who is in a position to judge what develop- 
ments will ensue from the hurly-burly in the 
Balkan Peninsula; whether Bulgaria, owing 
to its experiences, will ally itself with Turkey, 
whether Roumania will join Greece, and what 
part Servia, always a time server, will play? 
Two things may be reckoned on : a sanguinary 
and, owing to the second Balkan war, much 
inflamed hatred by Bulgaria against Servia 

91 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

and Greece and — Russia's not easily discour- 
aged anxiety to again try the political game 
in the Balkans which came to such a sudden 
end on the dissolution of the Balkan League 
established under her aegis. The deliberations 
of leading statesmen in the Balkan States, who 
happened "by chance" to meet in the Russian 
capital, could have had no other object than to 
forward Russian influence in order to oppose 
Austria's interests, and to arouse in the Bal- 
kans against Germany's ally an enemy who 
would fasten on her heels as soon as she en- 
deavored to defend herself against the Russian 
onslaught, or hasten to the assistance of her 
ally. 

It must be acknowledged that Russia's ex- 
ertions to expand meet with ever-increasing 
and more insurmountable obstacles the more 
they conflict with the interests of European 
Powers, and that in face of this opposition 
Russia herself requires to consolidate her re- 

92 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

sources, as a counterbalance. Every one be- 
lieved that the progress of internal develop- 
ment of the land and state would be delayed 
by the heavy blows which the Russian Empire 
sustained in East Asia, and the consequent 
unrest and demoralization amongst her officers 
and bureaucracy, and finally through bad har- 
vests. The greater must be the surprise at 
Russia's progress in every direction during 
recent years. 

In the first place an agricultural organiza- 
tion has been established which will perhaps 
at last terminate the unhappy state of the 
peasants. We are told that toward the end 
of 1912 over a million independent socie- 
ties were formed by means of which the peas- 
ant proprietors were enabled to free them- 
selves entirely. Next, the settlement of Si- 
beria was so energetically undertaken that 
from 1907 to 1912 no less than 2,400,000 per- 
sons of both sexes were settled in Siberia, and 

93 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

it is hoped that within a few years the whole 
of the arable land will be brought under the 
plow. 

The settlement of Siberia is of enormous 
military importance, as in this way it will be 
possible to base the defense of East Asia on 
the land's own strength, and it will not be 
necessary as heretofore to send large bodies 
of troops from the west of the Empire if Rus- 
sia is involved in a war with Japan or China. 
They are already in a position to reenforce 
the present seven standing army corps in Si- 
beria with a reserve of at least 285,000 men 
formed of the inhabitants themselves. In the 
same way as the development of their agri- 
culture enabled them to double their produc- 
tion between 1895 and 1911 (1,365,000,000 
roubles), and the demand for agricultural ma- 
chinery increased to the amount of 119,000,- 
000 roubles, industrial progress showed the 
same surprising advance; and in spite of the 
constantly increasing number the establish- 

94 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

ments do not yet satisfy the wants of the pop- 
ulation. The financial conditions of the State 
have taken a remarkably favorable turn since 
the paper currency was withdrawn (after the 
War of 1877-78) and a gold currency was 
established, in addition to which the Imperial 
Bank has been reorganized. They even suc- 
ceeded during the Japanese War, in spite of 
the tremendous war expenditure (3,600,000,- 
000 marks— £180,000,000) , in so preserving 
the Bank Reserve that in October 1905 it 
amounted to 2,500,000,000 marks (£125,000,- 
000) . But Russia is clever enough not to ex- 
pend this reserve on its present very consider- 
able outgoings for its army and defense, but 
instead makes claims on its ancient banker, 
France. In that way secure financial condi- 
tions will be assured for the contemplated war. 
It is true that the otherwise loquacious Rus- 
sian Press is silent on the subject that com- 
plete preparations on the highest scale are be- 
ing made for such a war — and this is a most 

95 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

suspicious sign — but from what reaches our 
ears on the subject we ought to pay the great- 
est attention to them. 

In all Russia's former wars want of a well 
developed net-work of routes — formerly of 
marching roads and in the last century of rail- 
ways — has been a hindrance to the rapid mo- 
bilization and equipment of her armies. The 
greater the distances of the troop stations from 
each other and from the theater of war in their 
extraordinarily extended Empire, the more 
serious was this circumstance in a country 
which is still to a large extent covered by con- 
siderable areas of swamp and forest. For 
that reason the accelerated construction of the 
Siberian Railway had to precede the conflict 
with Japan, which necessarily followed the oc- 
cupation of Manchuria, and even during the 
war the very difficult section round the shores 
of Lake Baikal had to be completed. Conse- 
quently a large portion of the loan of two mil- 
hard marks from France must be employed to 

96 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

rapidly complete the net-work of railways, so 
that the interior of the Empire may be linked 
with the German and Austro-Hungarian 
boundary. 

But the completion of these lines of com- 
munication will take years, and therefore they 
will have to deal with the pressure of the allies 
in another manner. There are two means 
open ; the contraction of the distance to be cov- 
ered by the troops, that is to say, to the west- 
ern boundary, and such an increase in the 
peace strength of their army that it will not 
be necessary to complete it by the transport 
by rail of an abnormal quantity of reserves. 
Russia has adopted both these means. Army 
corps have been advanced toward the frontier 
in three directions; toward the east against 
Japan and China where they have at one 
stroke been increased from five to seven, to- 
ward the south-east to the Caucasus against 
Turkey, toward the west against the German 
and Austro-Hungarian frontier. On the lat- 

97 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

ter two new corps have been formed, and no 
less than nineteen new cavalry regiments. 

In order to comply with the demand of 
France that they should not limit themselves 
to the defensive but should immediately com- 
mence with an advance, it was considered ad- 
visable to increase the corps to be employed in 
the first line to such a peace-footing that the 
offensive can immediately be assumed without 
waiting for the inclusion of any reserves. 
This is provided for by the extension of the 
period of service. This was formerly fixed at 
three years, namely, from the lst/14th Janu- 
ary to the end of the third year of service. 
Nevertheless, recruits were always embodied 
in the previous autumn and the Minister of 
War used, in accordance with his privilege, to 
permit discharges in November of the third 
year of service. He had also the power under 
the highest authority to retain the reserves 
with the colors even after the period of service 
had been completed if there were sufficient rea- 

98 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

son therefor. This right, which was exercised 
during the strained relations with Austria last 
year, has now been abandoned, as the period 
of service is prolonged till the lst/14th April 
of what is now the fourth year of service. 

What will be the result? During the period 
of training recruits there will be three full an- 
nual drafts of trained troops with the colors 
in the infantry and four in the cavalry, and 
the units will during this period, which is the 
most difficult and critical for every army, be a 
full quarter stronger and just as efficient as 
after completion of the period of training. 
The difference, as regards our army, which 
during the period of training has only one 
complete annual draft with the colors, can be 
seen at a glance. But we must take into fur- 
ther consideration that in case of an outbreak 
of war in the spring, instead of discharging 
the reserves they would be able to keep them 
back so as to have at their disposal forces al- 
most on a war footing. Even if the Russian 

99 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

measures do not go as far as the transforma- 
tion of the French organization, yet the lat- 
ter's wishes are being taken into full account. 
The peace footing of the Russian Army is 
now judged to be as follows: 

Of which there 
are in Europe 
Winter, 1913-4 1,840,000 1,322,000 troops 
Summer, 1914 1,415,000 1,017,000 " 
Winter, 1914-5 1,860,000 1,337,000 " 
Summer, 1915 1,435,000 1,032,000 " 
Winter, 1915-6 1,900,000 1,047,000 " 

These figures provide approximately the full 
strength on a war footing during the winter 
months. Assuming that Russia should in gen- 
eral conform to the plans suggested by the 
French General, Cherflls, then there will be 
concentrated on our eastern frontier and pri- 
marily against the Provinces of East and 
West Prussia, fourteen or fifteen army corps 
of the armies of Warsaw, Wilna, St. Peters- 
burg, and Kiev, of which eight are stationed 

100 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

only 80 to 200 kilometers (49.6-124 miles) 
from the frontier. 

But Russia has not only prepared herself 
for an offensive war by the above-mentioned 
increase and readiness of her army, but she 
has also paid increased attention to the pro- 
tection of her country by the extension of her 
fortifications. A representative of the Min- 
istry of War declared as long ago as last June 
that in 1912 not only had the then fortresses 
been improved and extended, but also new 
ones were being built. The Russians are link- 
ing their system of defenses on their western 
boundary in a northerly center which is de- 
fended by the fortress of Kowno and the forti- 
fied Niemen-line, in a southern center toward 
Galicia with the fortresses of Dubno, Luzk 
and Rowno, and an advanced position the 
center of which is formed by the triangular 
fortress chain of Warsaw — Nowo and Geor- 
giewsk-Zegrze, the left wing of which is 
formed by Iwangorod and Brest Litowsk. 

101 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

The whole circle of these fortifications is to be 
energetically carried out, the Warsaw center 
is to be transformed, Brest Litowsk is to be 
made a first-class fortress, and the Narew- 
Niemen line is to be made into an impregnable 
obstacle by means of strong defensive positions 
in the manner of the barrier-chains on the 
French eastern frontier. Great exertions are 
being made to make the defenses of St. Peters- 
burg even stronger than those of Kronstadt 
against an attack from the sea by strengthen- 
ing against maritime expeditions the south 
and north shores of the mouth of the Bay of 
Finland with new fortresses — Reval-Dago- 
Oesel and Sweaborg-Porkale. 

If we further take into consideration the 
amounts set aside for the annual training of 
the reserves and landwehr, which rose from 
2,90,000 (sic) roubles in the year 1907 to 11,- 
165,000 roubles in the year 1913, the immense 
quantities of grain, arms, transport, wagons, 
and other war equipment which have been 

102 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

massed and gathered together in the frontier 
districts, that Russia is exerting herself to de- 
velop the greatest possible number of trained 
men and officers in the art of flying and the 
handling of airships, we cannot help believing 
that Russia is thinking of complying with the 
pressure of her ally and banker because the 
time for a joint operation against Germany 
and Austria-Hungary is favorable. 

But they have not neglected to employ an- 
other means of weakening Germany's ally in 
the frontier districts in question by despatch- 
ing agents to encourage emigration, so that 
tens of thousands of those liable to service 
leave their country and deprive the Austrian 
Army of irreparable strength. But the best 
indications of the exertions made by any coun- 
try in its defense were afforded by the official 
statistics of the yearly estimates, and Russia's 
increase in respect of those for the army alone 
amounted in the years 1909-14 to 750,000,000 
marks (£37,500,000). That is about 72 per 

108 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

cent., and as against 1913 they rose in 1914 by 
546,000,000 (£27,300,000), i.e., 43l/ 2 per cent. 

When we look at the navy the same thing is 
seen: as regards new ships for the Baltic Fleet 
four battleships of 23,370 tons each are ready 
and four in course of construction ; six armored 
cruisers of 32,500 tons each are completed and 
four under construction ; four protected cruis- 
ers are ready and six under construction ; fifty- 
eight torpedo boats are completed and thirty- 
six under construction; and there are thirteen 
submarines built and being built. These great 
efforts to provide a new Baltic Fleet necessi- 
tated an increase in the estimates of 302,000,- 
000 marks between 1909 and 1913, i.e., 154 
per cent. 

During the same period the estimates for 
the French Navy rose 50 per cent., of Eng- 
land 29.6 per cent., but of Germany only 13.8 
per cent. How unjustified therefore are the 
reproaches which Great Britain is perpetually 
casting at Germany, and only Germany, that 

104 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

she is immoderately increasing her navy. Why 
does she not do the same to her Allies — France 
and Russia? 



105 



Ill 

A FRENCH WAR OF REVENGE 
FORECASTED 

AS A MILITARY MEASURE FRANCE MUST DE- 
CLARE WAR AGAINST GERMANY IN 1915 OR 
1916 

It is remarkable that Homer Lea, in his work 
The Day of the Saxon, makes absolutely no 
mention of France. That is rather humiliat- 
ing for the latter, as it excludes France from 
any competition with the British Empire. 
She has lost all importance on the sea as re- 
gards England since the latter succeeded in 
the eighteenth century in beating her navy and 
wresting from her her considerable colonial 
possessions which were just beginning to flour- 
ish. The fact that France has, in the mean- 
time, acquired considerable new possessions in 

106 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

other parts of the globe does not seem to 
trouble her former enemy, Great Britain, as 
the latter has been able to retain a certain su- 
periority. It was under this pressure that 
France had to give up her rights in Egypt and 
her designs on a colonial empire right across 
Africa from Senegambia to the Red Sea 
(Abyssinia) at the very moment when she 
thought she had effected the connection with 
her Eastern possessions by means of Fashoda. 
This was the only case in which her efforts to 
expand came into conflict with the British Em- 
pire, and the latter lost no time in putting a 
spoke in her wheel with brutal emphasis. 

Although this treatment by the Island Em- 
pire in 1898 was deeply resented by France as 
a national outrage, the impression very rap- 
idly disappeared and was lost to view behind 
the desire of revenge against Germany, which 
has prevailed since 1871, on England stepping 
forward to help her in the Morocco question. 
What is the reason for this hatred of the Ger- 

107 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

man Empire based on revenge, which causes 
all other matters in France to be relegated to 
the background whenever there is a demand 
for its settlement? 

The French pretend to attribute it to the an- 
cient contest between the Gauls and the Ger- 
mans about the everlasting bank of the Rhine. 
In order to justify the robbery of Alsace and 
Lorraine from Germany by Louis XIV they 
have put their own interpretation on history 
and have so stubbornly stuck to it in the schools 
that not only the French but also the inhab- 
itants of the Reichsland, who derive their in- 
struction from them, are completely permeated 
with this idea: i.e., since the partition of the 
Empire of Charlemagne — who is treated by 
them as a French monarch — the Reichsland 
has been a shuttlecock between the princes and 
the nations so that it could never rest in peace 
and fully develop until King Louis XIV took 
pity on it and incorporated it in his Empire, 
when it was enabled to enjoy peace and the 

108 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

blessings of civilization. Even if this were so, 
and it is quite contrary to all historical facts, 
it could not be denied that the population of 
the Reichsland was and still is to-day entirely 
German and not Gallic. In addition, the Al- 
satians and Lorrainers have never been ac- 
knowledged as entitled to full equal rights in 
France. On the contrary, they have ever been 
treated as subjects of foreign origin, and have 
been held up to ridicule and contempt. 

But the defeats of 1870-71, which termi- 
nated in the reunion of the Reichsland, deeply 
wounded the French nation in its tenderest 
spot, its vanity. That is the root of her in- 
delible hatred. She could get over the de- 
struction of her navy by England, and the loss 
of her colonies, as she still retained her superi- 
ority on land, which was created by Louis 
XIV and raised by Napoleon I to the utmost 
possible limits on the Continent; from that 
date the "Grande Nation" considered herself 
as the imparter of culture, the ruling power in 

109 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

Europe. When her boastful arrogance under 
Napoleon III was met by the unexpected re- 
sistance of Germany and the latter country 
(formerly despised for her division into little 
states and dismemberment, and jeered at for 
her want of civilization and culture) rose in de- 
termined unity and unexpected might and ca- 
pacity not only on the battle-field but also in 
industry and commerce, in art and science, and 
herself took the lead, then the French nation, 
discovered in its weakness and ousted from the 
throne of its presumptuous might, was deeply 
hurt in its vanity. Hinc illce lacrimce. 

The fighting powers of the inhabitants of 
the Reichsland are of some importance in view 
of the fanatical wish to win it back, as they 
are the descendants of old German races dis- 
tinguished for their courage, who have always 
preserved warlike inclinations and virtues. 
They have furnished the French Army with 
many of its best soldiers and most celebrated 
generals. The approximately two million 

110 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

people of the Reichsland are of importance 
having regard to the decrease in the popula- 
tion of France, and would be of substantial as- 
sistance as regards the deficiency in officers in 
particular, if entry to the French Army were 
again open to the inhabitants of the Reichs- 
land. 

In spite of a noticeable temporary cessation 
of the hostile spirit (which does not prevail all 
over France and to an equal degree amongst 
the whole population), the French Govern- 
ment, whatever views it may have held, has 
always persisted in completing and perfecting 
her army and fortifications. That is to be at- 
tributed to two reasons: sufficient protection 
of the open frontier left after the loss of the 
Rhine frontier, and the endeavor to keep her 
own active force on an equal footing with the 
German Army. A chain of four strong ring 
fortresses was built on the 250 kilometers ( 155 
miles) of the German frontier on the Meuse 
and the Moselle, of which the two barrier 

111 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

chains of Verdun-Toul and Epinal-Belfort 
serve as defensive positions on the wings and 
flank the gaps of Verdun-Longwy (50 kilome- 
ters wide, 31 miles) and Toul-Epinal (70 kilo- 
meters, 43.4 miles). Primarily designed to 
support the advance of the French Army 
against the much more rapidly mobilizable 
German Army, these fortresses, now that the 
French hope to mobilize quicker than we do, 
constitute a great stronghold in a war com- 
mencing by an offensive movement. The po- 
sition of Verdun-Toul in particular is ex- 
tremely favorable for a defending army in 
consequence of its situation on the edge of the 
Cote de Meuse, from which steep declivities 
descend to the opposite plain, and this would 
certainly have to be penetrated by us. When 
Italy joined the German- Austrian League the 
Alpine frontier had to be more strongly pro- 
tected against the former; and therefore an 
abnormally strong fortress consisting of Pass- 
barriers and strong defensive positions was 

112 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

erected in this neighborhood which not only 
defends all the roads over the mountains but 
also numerous by-roads. Finally they had to 
obviate the possibility of an invasion of Ger- 
man troops in violation of Belgium's neutral- 
ity or penetrating by way of Switzerland, so 
that the resisting powers of their old fortresses 
on these frontiers had to be improved and 
strengthened. Thus France has kept up a 
line of fortifications on the whole of her east- 
ern frontier some 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) 
long, which should stay a surprise invasion 
of a hostile force. It will be quite impossible 
in any future war to pass these fortresses with- 
out paying them any attention as in 1870. 

The erection and constantly necessary re- 
pair and modernization of these fortifications 
could very well be carried out by means of the 
necessary large grants which have always been 
forthcoming. But the maintenance of the 
army on the same basis as the German Army 
was a more difficult matter, as this could not 

119 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

be attained by mere expenditure, however lav- 
ish, but only through numbers, and of that 
France possessed no such superfluity as she did 
of money. As long ago as the 'seventies she 
had fallen behind Germany. With approxi- 
mately the same area she had at home in 1875 
only 36,900,000 against Germany's 42,700,000 
inhabitants. Since then her population has 
only increased by 7.6 per cent, to 39,700,000, 
whereas Germany has reached 67,500,000, an 
increase therefore of 58 per cent. Conse- 
quently France could not keep pace with Ger- 
many in the annual embodiment of recruits 
even by constantly lowering physical re- 
quirements. She was compelled to reduce the 
strength of the units — in the first instance of 
the companies — so as to maintain the same 
number of battalions and afterwards also to 
employ men of inferior physique, substituting 
them for many who were engaged on indoor 
work, as orderlies, etc. 

But owing to the small number of recruits 
114 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

the number of efficient soldiers who could be 
called up on mobilization showed a deficiency 
after taking into account the reserves of the 
German Army. If universal service had been 
enforced to the same extent in Germany as in 
France the German Army would have had 
an enormous advantage in trained troops. 
But the increase in size of German battalions 
and consequently in the number of recruits 
has not kept pace with the increase in the pop- 
ulation, so that the balance was not disturbed 
to any considerable extent. This would en- 
able France to obtain an advantage, at any 
rate temporarily, should she succeed in bring- 
ing her standing army up to a higher figure 
than is at the disposal of her eastern neighbor. 
The number of trained men capable of being 
added to the recruits in case of war could 
of course not be increased, and her neighbor's 
preponderance in effectives could not be dis- 
puted, but the prolongation of service with 
the colors from two to three years secured an 

115 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

addition to the standing army of at least 200,- 
000 men and the further advantage of a much 
more thorough training than is possible in 
Germany, not only of the men in general but 
also of those who aspire to become officers of 
the reserve, who are also kept for three years. 

After the introduction of the three years' 
term of active service the French standing 
army reached a strength in non-commissioned 
officers and privates of 768,300 (inclusive of 
80,000 army service corps, 24,000 gendarmes 
and 31,300 colonials), whereas our army had 
only 619,000, and even with the large increase 
which brought us near to universal service 
again, we have not yet quite overhauled the 
French, as we have only about 751,000 troops 
with the colors. 

The three-year term of service was carried 
out in peculiar manner not without importance 
for the next few years. As those born in 1890 
who were in the second year of service refused 
to remain a year longer, and voiced their senti- 

116 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

ments by gross acts of mutiny, it was decided 
to discharge them in the autumn of 1913 and 
to embody two annual drafts of recruits at one 
and the same time, namely, those born in 1892 
and 1893. Consequently, two annual drafts 
will have to be trained at the same time by 
means of those who have already served one 
year, a state of affairs which will make it al- 
most impossible for the French Army to en- 
gage in war at the present moment. But as 
the commencement of service was put back a 
year, i.e., from the year of completion of the 
twenty-first year to the previous one in order 
to legally carry out the premature embodiment 
of the 1893 series, those born in 1894 will have 
to be called up in 1914. And as those of 1891 
who are now in their second year are bound 
for three years, it will probably be possible to 
keep them for 1915 also. Consequently it will 
be possible to have not only three but even 
four annual drafts in the standing army next 
year, i.e., a greater battalion strength than is 

117 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

required on a war footing. Mobilization 
could accordingly be effected much more eas- 
ily and rapidly, as not only would the various 
units possess their war strength, but they 
would be able to tell off a considerable number 
to form the basis of a reserve army. 

France will once again in 1916 have the op- 
portunity of playing the same game, as the 
two annual drafts called out in 1913 will not 
be discharged till the autumn of that year. 
If by that time she has not attained the object 
of her mighty preparations, and has not suc- 
ceeded in dragging Russia and England with 
her in an attack on Germany, she will have 
temporarily to forego her war of revenge if 
she does not want to be ruined commercially. 

The condition of France due to universal 
three years' service is nothing less than a con- 
tinuous state of readiness for war. Even if a 
wealthy country can bear the financial sacrifice 
required for this state of affairs — the personal 
sacrifice becomes too great, having regard to 

118 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

the fact that not only is the peasant torn 
for so long a period from his plow and 
the artisan from his trade, but the whole 
youth of the country, whose scientific or tech- 
nical education is of indispensable impor- 
tance to the State, must have its studies in- 
terrupted for three whole years, and has got 
to commence again at the beginning. This 
youthful energy uselessly sacrificed to the idea 
of revanche would avenge itself most bitterly 
if it were not actually used up for the war of 
revenge. Therefore it follows from the mili- 
tary measures of France, that she will have to 
insist on war against Germany in the year 
1915 or in any case in 1916. 

But France is not content with having more 
than 2 per cent, (including officers) of the 
whole population in her standing army. She 
is endeavoring to get auxiliary forces from her 
colonies so as to be able to attain the necessary 
superiority in numbers without the assistance 
of other countries. As long ago as 1870 the 

119 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

"most civilized" nation drew into the ranks 
against us all sorts of savages from Africa, but 
even more can be done in this direction. In 
Algiers, Senegambia, and the Western Sou- 
dan especially, there is a population estimated 
at about thirty millions which can be of consid- 
erable assistance, and the aims of their colonial 
administration are primarily directed to this 
purpose. A German traveler who is very well 
acquainted with the conditions in the Soudan 
confirms this in the following words : "Neither 
commercial nor colonization schemes are suf- 
ficiently encouraged. On the contrary, their 
political efforts are directed to making the col- 
ony subsist on black power, black intelligence, 
and black money, and to produce French citi- 
zens of black blood by thousands, hundreds of 
thousands and millions. And, naturally, all 
these millions are to furnish good, enthusiastic, 
and patriotic French soldiers." 

There are already twenty-eight battalions of 
so-called Senegal Guards in existence, and 

120 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

every year sees an increase in the planned or- 
ganization. These black troops can, of course, 
not be transplanted to a European climate 
just as they are; nevertheless the attempt to 
make use of them on the North Coast of Africa 
gave apparently good results, so that the Eu- 
ropean or Arab troops stationed there will un- 
doubtedly be transferred to the European the- 
ater of war and be replaced by Senegal 
Guards, and it may even be possible to bring 
over the blacks who have been acclimatized on 
the North Coast of Africa. In any case they 
will possess very considerable forces in the 
Soudan for the purpose of making an attack 
against our African colonies by the routes laid 
out thence and from Equatorial Africa, and 
attempting to take them from us, which would 
be well worth their while. There are already 
20,000 men ready for such an enterprise. 

The activity with which preparations for war 
are being conducted in Algiers may be gath- 
ered from the constant increase of the Al- 

121 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

gerian battalions of Guards which are to be in- 
creased from five to forty-eight by annual ad- 
ditions, and which are already thirty-nine in 
number. But in addition to her African col- 
onies France has looked for assistance else- 
where so as, notwithstanding her own want of 
men, to overhaul the strength of Germany's 
forces; Aborigines have been brought from 
the Antilles, it is true only to succumb in great 
numbers in the South of France. They were 
consequently shipped off to Algiers, but even 
there the climate did not seem to suit them. 
But after such attempts we should not be sur- 
prised if, during the next war, the German 
troops were confronted with Annamites and 
inhabitants of Madagascar and Cambodia. 

In the year 1912 the number of trained 
French troops available was stated as between 
4% and 4% millions, i.e., 11.3 to 12 per cent, 
of the whole population. As not more than 17 
to 18 per cent, of males can be considered as of 
serviceable age, it follows that, after mobiliza- 

\%% 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

tion of such a number, only children, old men, 
and weaklings would be left for civil purposes. 
That would mean that all civil occupations 
would be at a standstill for the purpose of car- 
rying on a war in such numbers. But as this 
is absolutely impossible in the interests of the 
army we had better not reckon on such an ex- 
orbitant number. Russia, with her 190,000,- 
000 of inhabitants, can submit to such a sacri- 
fice of men, but not France. 

In any case the French army, or rather the 
French armies if the number of army corps is 
doubled by the embodiment of reserves, will, 
even without the territorial army and its re- 
serve, require such a large area for its opera- 
tions that the Franco-German frontier would 
be much too short to allow it to pass through 
at one and the same time; thus one army will 
have to be employed behind the other or the 
outlets will have to be increased and widened. 

Here the question of Belgium becomes of 
first importance. Her sympathy with France 

123 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

is so well known that she can hardly be ex- 
pected to offer any opposition to a march 
through her territory which as a neutral state 
it is really her duty to do. At any rate this 
would be a dangerous game for Belgium to 
play, as whatever the result might be it would 
probably put an end to her independence. 
But England also appears, as we have seen, 
to count on disembarking her expeditionary 
army at Antwerp. And they would have to 
join forces with the French in neutral territory 
— naturally under the pretext of protecting 
Belgium against the rapacious German Army 
even if the latter's troops had not yet set foot 
on neutral territory. 

Homer Lea gives us some points with re- 
spect to neutrality which are very significant 
of Anglo-Saxon ideas. He thinks that the 
occupation of neutral territory, such as Hol- 
land and Belgium, might call forth violent op- 
position in England in case of a war with Ger- 
many. "That is unjustified," he says, "as the 

1U 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

British Empire can make no impression by the 
sanctification of neutrality. This only forms 
a means of withdrawing from responsibility 
and imposing it on those nations who give way 
to the self-deception that such declarations of 
neutrality are inviolable. And in that respect 
no nation has more frequently violated neu- 
tral territory nor has any nation more often 
excused itself from the duty of observing neu- 
trality than the British. . . . Should the An- 
glo-Saxons occupy these frontiers that will 
only mean territorial but not a moral violation 
of the neutrality of those countries. . . . 
Neutrality of countries under such conditions 
has never been and never will be a factor to be 
reckoned with in a war between the nations. 
That kind of neutrality is a modern illusion 
and indicates eccentric aberration." But I do 
not believe that England will exhibit the op- 
position assumed by Homer Lea to a viola- 
tion of neutrality. I rather think that his 
opinions will be shared there. 

125 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

France has, in the course of the last few dec- 
ades, which she has undoubtedly devoted to 
preparing for war against Germany, had to 
suffer many disappointments: she has been 
overtaken by us in the construction of guns, 
and the discovery of her much vaunted smoke- 
less powder has been a fiasco. When the 
Lebaudy was proudly reckoned as the sole un- 
rivaled airship of the world, there appeared si- 
multaneously in Germany no less than three air 
dirigibles all of which proved to be faster than 
the French one, and when the French applied 
themselves with great enthusiasm to the con- 
struction and development of flying machines 
their triumph was short-lived, as the German 
machines were able to show similar results 
within a few years. The reasons lie in the 
natural qualities of the French; they are in- 
telligent, inventive, courageous and lay hold 
of a new idea with great skill and enthusiasm ; 
but they are not careful workmen, and lack 
the untiring patience of the Germans, who, 

126 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

unlike the French satisfied with a momentary 
success and then taking up something new, are 
not content with their results and are always 
striving to attain something better and more 
perfect. 

But one weapon the French know how to 
wield with adroitness; the fostering of insur- 
rection in our border country, the Reichsland. 
I must lay emphasis on the fact that in the 
coming war, at any rate in the first days of 
preparation, this is destined to play a fatal 
part, but will not prove a blessing to the poor 
inhabitants if they do not resist this unholy 
influence. 



m 



IV 
THE HOUR OF DESTINY 

THE HOUR OF THE GERMAN EMPIRE AND ITS 
ALLIES MAY COME AS EARLY AS THE SPRING 
OF 1915 

The European nations of German and Latin 
origin have since the downfall of the Roman 
Empire rightly regarded themselves as the pi- 
oneers of civilization, and have consequently 
considered themselves called upon to impress 
their stamp on the other portions of the earth 
which have been opened up by them, and at 
the same time to exercise spiritual, but to a 
larger extent political powers. But in the 
development of nations we always find that 
the population, to whatever extent it may have 
been subjected, acquires all the qualities and 
character by means of which the ruling nation 

128 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

was able to make itself master, and then en- 
deavors to break its fetters, whether they be 
spiritual or political. From this arises the evi- 
dent danger of the European Great Powers 
in that they are gradually ousted from their 
ruling position on the earth and are relegated 
to the Old World. And the more so if they 
have singly to meet new-born world powers. 
We saw the commencement of this new era 
during the Russo-Japanese War; as, even if 
Russia is not to be considered in the preemi- 
nence of its culture as a prominent member of 
the European Powers, yet, as distinguished 
from Japan, she represented European civili- 
zation. And in the Pacific, where she met de- 
feat, the future battles for the dominion of the 
world will be decided between the European, 
Asiatic and American nations. The Em- 
peror William II years ago issued the follow- 
ing prophetic warning: "Nations of Europe, 
guard your most holy treasures." What he 
meant by that was clearly indicated. 

189 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

No one will dispute this view, and it would 
be sufficient reason for the European nations 
to unite in jointly warding off this danger. 
Nothing further would be necessary than a 
few concessions which would hurt nobody, a 
fair adjustment of indispensable expansion of 
territory, trade or power, a surrender of su- 
perfluous possessions and the suppression of all 
selfish efforts to take revenge on or repress a 
neighbor. Do the interests of each so con- 
flict that no portion can be sacrificed to avoid 
the loss of the whole? If the peace confer- 
ences at The Hague would take these views 
into consideration in the hope of arriving at a 
union of the Powers in common defense, then 
their importance to Europe could not be suffi- 
ciently appreciated. But how different are 
the conditions ! Divided into two large hostile 
camps, the six Great Powers, groaning under 
the grievous burden of their armaments, stand 
opposed, talk only of peace and friendship, 
and then one side is consumed with the desire 

130 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

to strike, whilst the other, hand on sword, has 
to be ever ready for the conflict in which Eu- 
rope will be torn to pieces and for many years 
rendered incapable of meeting the danger to 
its commercial, political and military rule 
which threatens it from without. 

Since King Edward of England, under the 
illusion that the growing land and sea power 
of the German Empire was a danger to the ex- 
istence of the British Empire as a world 
power, concluded an alliance with all former 
enemies of Great Britain and spared no 
trouble to isolate us and surround us with hos- 
tile forces, Europe has been living in constant 
anticipation of a terrible conflict. That it has 
not broken out long since, and that so favora- 
ble an opportunity as the War in the Balkans 
did not fire the powder, and that it was just 
England who held back her threatening allies, 
is in my view principally to be attributed to 
the cold-blooded British commercial spirit, 
England would have no objection to the Con- 

131 



THE GERMAN EMPIRES 

tinental Powers coming to blows and lacer- 
ating each other; but then she might have to 
bear part of the expense. What advantage 
would any side derive from victory in such a 
war? A devastated country and empty cof- 
fers. What country if conquered would be 
able to pay the war indemnity? It is difficult 
to see what could be "got" out of such a war, 
and as Great Britain would be compelled to 
take part because she herself has the largest 
interest in the destruction of the German 
Navy, and could not hope to leave the battle- 
field without very serious losses and without 
any advantage, she for the moment avoids the 
execution of the plans drawn up by herself. 

Rut the spirits you have called up cannot 
now be got rid of. France's inspired desire 
for vengeance against the German Empire, 
and the inflamed hatred of Russia against 
Austria-Hungary, who bars her progress, have 
compelled both countries to enhance their war 

132 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

preparations, which can only be maintained 
for a short time. 

As a matter of fact these preparations can- 
not be really distinguished from actual readi- 
ness for war, and by the spring of 1915 they 
will have been so nearly completed that we 
must be prepared day by day to expect the 
invasion of a mighty horde such as has never 
been seen in Europe or on earth. And then 
the hour of the German Empire and its Allies 
will strike^ then we shall have to fight harder 
than ever, but then also will we show to the 
world an enthusiasm, a resignation, and spirit 
of sacrifice even greater and more valiant than 
in the wars of liberation, for never will a na- 
tion have been attacked with greater injustice 
than in this coming war. Never has any na- 
tion been so patient and long-suffering under 
imposition and provocation from all sides as 
Germany has been in recent years. If ever a 
nation and a ruler have shown firm determina- 

188 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

tion to remain the guardians of peace it is Ger- 
many and the Emperor William II. 

And just as last year the Government im- 
mediately answered France's threatening 
measure, the reintroduction of three years' 
service, with a powerful addition to our forces, 
just as the German people submitted to the 
depletion of its means without demur — nay 
rather with a certain sense of high-minded and 
joyful sacrifice for the sake of the Fatherland 
— so we may be sure that all preparations 
will be duly made not only with regard to the 
forces but also provision for the financial and 
commercial side. 

For so prolonged a war, which will demand 
all the resources of the countries involved, will 
be carried on not only with the weapons of 
army and navy, but also by pitting against 
each other their respective commercial and 
financial resources. But it must not be im- 
agined that five or six million soldiers are all 
of a sudden going to pour over our borders 

134 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

and simply crush our armies. At first there 
is only the regular army to be considered after 
deducting all troops that have to be retained 
in the fortresses and for various other pur- 
poses, as the embodiment and the equipment 
of the reserve armies requires considerable 
time. Secondly, large masses of troops re- 
quire large operating areas, as armies only ap- 
proximately similar in size can be employed in 
a certain space. In this respect the operating 
and fighting conditions of our modern armies 
of millions differ essentially from those of the 
smaller armies such as Frederick the Great 
and even Napoleon had at their disposal. 

In those days strategists were always able 
to follow the course of a battle from some com- 
manding point and seize their opportunities ac- 
cordingly. This was out of the question even 
at Metz and Sedan, as the still comparatively 
small masses of troops had to be extended over 
many miles to employ them in battle. And 
what an enormous extent of ground the Man- 

135 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

churian battles covered! So there will be no 
question in the coming battles of overpowering 
masses, of crushing by superior forces; one 
man will not have to fight five or six; the op- 
posing lines will be equally thick or thin. 

Thus in the future as in the past, the moral 
qualities coupled with the physical fitness, 
activity, and gunnery of the individual soldier 
will decide the issue in a skirmish, and correct 
judgment of the enemy and his movements as 
well as employment of the troops at the right 
time and place, on the part of the commanders, 
will decide the battle. The French Army will 
derive no advantage from its excessive increase 
in numbers, which is beyond the strength of 
the country, as this effort has led to the inclu- 
sion not only of men absolutely fit for cam- 
paigning, but also of many who are weakly and 
unfit, and this may prove to be a heavy bur- 
den to the army. 

When it is seen how few French soldiers are 
able to withstand disease — for example, at 

136 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

the moment no less than 36 per cent, of those 
in active service are released through death, 
disease or debility — it will be recognized that 
many will succumb to the exertions of heavy 
marches, insufficient nourishment and constant 
nervous excitement. It cannot be denied that 
the longer term of service in the French as 
well as in the Russian Army is capable 
through judicious training of ensuring more 
efficiency than is possible in our term of two 
years. But this requires in particular consci- 
entious and willing instructors and conse- 
quently a corps of officers and N.C.O.'s of 
supreme excellence, which judging by the 
events of the Japanese war, will hardly be 
found in the Russian army; and in France the 
quality of officers and privates alike is sub- 
stantially influenced by their fatal participa- 
tion in politics. There is one characteristic of 
the German soldier which is of great advantage 
to our army and which is absent in the Latin 
races; both the reserves and the Landwehr re- 

1S7 



THE GERMAN EMPIRE'S 

tain what they have learned in active service 
with frequently surprising tenacity. 

To fully appreciate the value of this quality 
it is necessary to see a company of the Land- 
wehr in the field. I have myself noticed in the 
case of pioneers, whose technical knowledge 
is the most easily forgotten, that they only re- 
quire one or two days' practise in order to 
completely recover their infantry training, and 
hardly require a short course of instruction in 
technical work before they show the same skill 
as if they had been discharged yesterday in- 
stead of ten years ago. 

If there is to be a conflict we shall enter it 
with the same consciousness and conviction 
of victory as in 1870, mindful that numbers 
alone will not ensure it but that it will fall to 
him who can hold out longest in endurance and 
money. As for the rest, the motto adapted 
from an old saying which the architect of the 
Palace of Peace set over the window of the 
great hall, Si vis pacem, para gustitiam, is all 

138 



HOUR OF DESTINY 

very well, but absolute justice does not exist. 
Who will decide the dispute between Germany 
and France as to the right of possession of the 
Reichsland? Each of them will ever maintain 
that his title is the only good one. Therefore 
it is better to restore the sentence to its old 
form: — 

Si vis pacem J para helium! 



THE END 



VAIL-BALLOU CO., BINGHAMTON AND NEW YORK 

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